While the 50-game mark is only about 30% of the way through the Major League Baseball marathon season, it’s a good benchmark. This is where the contenders start to separate themselves from the pretenders. Yet, it’s still early enough to where there is still plenty of value in the MLB futures market.
The market has adjusted to some rather unusual starts, as expected. For example, the Houston Astros — who have made seven consecutive ALCS appearances — are 22-27 but have the sixth-shortest odds to win the World Series. These adjustments take away perceived value. However, that’s not to say there aren’t diamonds in the rough in the futures market.
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Here are three of my favorite future plays at FanDuel Sportsbook as of May 22:
Best Regular Season Record: New York Yankees (+500)
The New York Yankees are off to their hottest start since 1999. This is especially encouraging for fans in the Bronx given their franchise has won three World Series pennants in that time with slower beginnings. Aaron Boone’s squad sits atop the American League at 33-17 after 50 games.
This early season success doesn’t seem to be a fluke either. The Yankees are knocking the cover off the baseball behind the one-two punch of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. New York is also getting some excellent production from its pitching staff, which boasts the best ERA in baseball (2.92).
The Yankees have the second-most wins in the MLB behind the Philadelphia Phillies (35-14), so I believe there is value at +500. These odds show a 16.67% implied probability of New York finishing with the most wins in the league.
It’s viewed as a three-horse race between the Yankees, Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers. Two of those teams play in the National League together and only one is getting a legitimate ace in Gerrit Cole back from injury in the coming weeks.
American League MVP: Kyle Tucker (+650)
We’ve spoken about both Houston and tearing the cover off the baseball so far, so let’s discuss the player who is getting MVP chants in May, Kyle Tucker. The Astros outfielder has been touted as a breakout superstar candidate for years, but now, it seems as if he’s ascended to that status.
Tucker is slashing .293/.425/.649 this season with a league-leading 17 home runs. He’s posted a 3.5 wins above replacement (WAR), which also leads the MLB.
Houston’s gotten off to a rough start, especially with fellow stars Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman struggling early. However, it’s Tucker who has carried the Astros back around .500. His contributions have Houston within striking distance of the Seattle Mariners atop the AL West.
There’s still a long time left to play this season. Given where Tucker’s stats rank among others to start the year, +650 is excellent value for the 27-year-old to bring home his first MVP Award.
National League Cy Young: Ranger Suarez (+500)
I’ve also found value in the National League Cy Young futures market. As I mentioned earlier, the Phillies are a wagon right now. They have the best record in the MLB and that’s large in part due to the phenomenal production from their starters, namely Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler.
The former isn’t the sexiest name the sport has to offer, but he’s quietly been one of the league’s best starters through 50 games. Suarez is second in the league with a 1.36 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. He also leads the league in wins with a 9-0 record and he’s seventh with 68 strikeouts.
There are few questioning whether he can maintain this success throughout the campaign after he dominated the reigning World Champions, the Texas Rangers, in his last start. He’s got the third-shortest odds behind Wheeler (2.52 ERA) and Chicago’s Shota Imanaga (0.84 ERA), but given his workload so far, I like his odds the most at 5/1.
These are just some of my favorite plays in the futures market right now.
One to keep an eye on is Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt for American League Manager of the Year (+310). The Guardians are off to a scorching start and Terry Francona’s successor has done a fantastic job to date. The only reason I didn’t include this as a favorite pick is because he’s got stiff competition from Kansas City Royals manager Matt Quatraro, who is the betting favorite as of May 22.
What is your favorite MLB futures bet right now?