Jun 22, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (52) reacts after hitting an RBI triple against the New York Mets during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
- The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs meet in the rubber match of a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Sunday Night Baseball
- Both teams are currently two games out of the NL’s final Wild-Card berth
- See the New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs predictions, picks, starting pitchers and odds for SNB on June 23
Two underperforming teams look to move a step closer to respectability on Sunday Night Baseball tonight when the Chicago Cubs (37-40, 22-17) host the New York Mets (36-39, 18-16 away) in the finale of a three-game series at Wrigley Field at 6:00 pm CT/7:00 pm ET.
The Mets dominated the series-opener 11-1 but the Cubbies answered back with an 8-1 rout on Saturday night. With Luis Severino on the mound for New York opposite promising youngster Javier Assad for Chicago, the Mets vs Cubs odds slightly favor the home team taking the series.
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Predictions
- Cubs moneyline (-112)
- First 5 innings under 4.5 (-120)
Mired in mediocrity, the Cubs haven’t won back-to-back series since April 13-17, when they took two of three from Seattle and Arizona, but Sunday’s tilt with the Mets represents a prime opportunity. New York starter Luis Severino has atrocious home/road splits, posting a superb 2.47 ERA at Citi Field and a concerning 4.86 ERA elsewhere.
Chicago starter Javier Assad is just the opposite. His ERA is a mediocre 3.70 on the road but a miniscule 1.69 at home.
Severino did pitch phenomenally when these teams met in Queens back on April 29 (one run on one hit over 8.0 innings with five Ks and two walks in a 2-1 loss) but that was at home and his overall ERA has increased from 2.31 after that game to 3.52 entering Sunday Night Baseball on June 23.
Assad has also made one start against the Mets this season, giving up one run on five hits over 5.0 innings but with a season-low one strikeout in a 4-2 setback on April 30.
In 29 total at-bats over his career, Assad has limited the Mets hitters to a .172 average and .391 OPS with no extra-base hits, two walks, but just four strikeouts.
Severino’s numbers against the current Cubs lineup are eerily similar (.111 BA and .311 OPS with just three singles in 27 at-bats). But again, the bulk of those came at Citi Field, where Severino has been considerably more comfortable.
The Mets had won eight of nine before Saturday’s setback and, as a team, have been considerably better on the road (two games over .500) than at home (five games under) this season. But that’s still a small sample size. The Cubbies were a solid elite 45-36 at Wrigley last year while the Mets were a horrid 32-49 in away games in 2023.
Expect New York’s road record to keep regressing on Sunday Night Baseball.
I am also backing the first-half under. With Assad on the mound and the win blowing slightly in at Wrigley, the finale should be the lowest-scoring game of the series.
Luis Severino vs Javier Assad
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 3.52 | ERA | 2.75 |
| 3.65 | xERA | 4.08 |
| 1.20 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 17.4% | K% | 23.7% |
Best Mets vs Cubs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets (Severino) | -104 | -1.5 (+158) | O 8.5 (+102) |
| Chicago Cubs (Assad) | -112 | +1.5 (-194) | U 8.5 (-124) |
Odds as of June 23 at FanDuel. Claim a bonus from the best MLB betting apps for Sunday Night Baseball.
There isn’t much variation in the odds available for Mets vs Cubs on Sunday night. The best price on the Cubs moneyline is -112 at FanDuel while the best price on the Mets moneyline is also at FanDuel (-104). The over/under is 8.5 across the board. DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM all have the under priced at -115, while FanDuel is the outlier on the over, offering it at plus-money (+102).
The MLB public-betting splits show the majority of money on the Cubs so far. As of 12:27 pm ET, 60% of moneyline handle was on the Cubs to win, while 64% of runline handle was on Chicago, as well. The public is hammering the over, putting 90% of game-total handle on over 8.5 roughly six hours before first pitch.
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.