I will always be thankful for a winning week when betting on the NFL, and it’s been a good couple of weeks for my NFL projection model. However, the nature of how the Vikings–Rams under turned into a push, combined with the Dolphins blowing their lead, is pretty frustrating. I’ll take the winning week, but it feels like some meat was left on the bone. And that’s before I almost gave out the Bears as a best bet once Jayden Daniels was ruled in. I’m thankful that was left off the card.

Last week’s record: 3-2, +0.70 units
Season record: 19-19-2, -0.30 units, -0.7% ROI

Just three plays this week. A few more are almost in range, but I need confirmation on some injury statuses before hitting submit. As always, shop around for the best price, and good luck to us!

Best bets for NFL Week 9

All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst price to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals under 47 (-110)

I don’t know what the identity of this Raiders offense is, but I do know that it isn’t very good. If there is an offense that I think this putrid Bengals defense can stop, it might be the Raiders. Forty-seven is a key number here, and any move off this price is not worth a play, so pay attention to what price you’re getting.

• Worst price to bet: Under 47 (-115)

Los Angeles Chargers -1.5 (-110) at Cleveland Browns (to win 1.5 units)

Last week I was on the Browns against the Ravens, as I didn’t think the market properly upgraded the Browns’ offense after naming Jameis Winston the starting quarterback. This week, however, I think the market is giving too much credit to the Browns after beating the Ravens. Winston had at least two dropped interceptions in that game and will be facing a better defense this week.

• Worst price to bet: Chargers -2 (-110)

Washington Commanders -3.5 (-105) at New York Giants

Jayden Daniels might still have lingering issues with his rib injury, but he scrambled enough last week against the Bears, so I think we will see more from him with his legs this week. When these teams met in Week 2, the Giants couldn’t keep the Commanders offense off the field, as Washington never punted. On a short week, I don’t think this is a great matchup for the Giants to contain the mobile Daniels.

• Worst price to bet: Commanders -3.5 (-110)

(Photo of Jayden Daniels: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)