The NFL season opener pits the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs against the Baltimore Ravens, who are contenders for the AFC Championship game.

The new season explodes into life with a highly-anticipated Thursday night football featuring Patrick Mahomes taking on Lamar Jackson.

Then, the show continues with a full slate of games on Sunday afternoon, followed by a Monday Night Football showcasing the San Francisco 49ers and the New York Jets.

NFL week one tips and picks

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 47 points

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 point spread

Carolina Panthers +4.5 point spread

Cleveland Browns -2.5 point spread

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (1:20am BST, Fri)

The defending champions kick off the new NFL season at Arrowhead Stadium we’re treated to an early preview of what could well be the AFC Championship game. The spread opened at Chiefs -3.5 but has since been whittled down to -3, reflecting some visitor support. The Ravens are one of few sides who look capable of containing Kansas given their strong defensive play in recent seasons, but it’s the offence we’re interested in. They’ve added the talent of Derrick Henry to their rush attack. Overall, this looks like a more balanced and experienced team. Both sides will be keen to stamp their authority but owing to the Chief’s dominance, we think the Ravens will be that bit more motivated to keep this one close. Early-season rust may allow two good defences to prevail, leading to a close, low-scoring game.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (1:20am BST, Sat)

The Eagles are sacrificing a home game to play in a sold-out Neo Quimica Arena in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. They’ll meet the Green Bay Packers, who flourished under Jordan Love at the end of last season. On the contrary, Jalen Hurts and his Eagles offence lost their grove, but we’re willing to bet they’ll rediscover it quickly under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. We’ll assume their offence will want to come out firing and make a statement, but what of their porous defence? Well, they’ve improved their secondary in the draft, made free agency moves and are set to welcome Darius Slay Jr. back from injury. We’ll take a flyer on the birds to grab a narrow win.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (6pm BST, Sun)

The NFL season is too short to play it safe. With that in mind, we’re going to try and get ahead of the trends here, and go out on a limb by saying the Panthers will be a better ATS side. They were 5-10 last season, regularly pulling their backer’s pants down. However, we think they’ll show up against divisional rivals, the New Orleans Saints, in week one. Don’t expect a ton of points to be scored. The teams combined for 71 across two meetings last season, and that alone is a reason to shy away from asking the Saints to win by five or more. We also want to put some faith in Bryce Young, who despite a poor 2023 season, has the potential to improve. Dave Canales should be able to get him back on track and help him find his shiny new targets, Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette.

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns (9:25pm BST, Sun)

The Dallas Cowboys are no joke, but we’re keen to try and exploit what we see as a kind spread. The Cleveland Browns are favourited by just under a field goal and we envisage a scrappy, low-scoring game, which certainly favours the Browns. The defence allowed 38 regular season touchdowns and held opposing teams to an average of 270.2 yards. As much as the Cowboys will be good on both sides of the ball, there’s a lot of potential for things to go wrong in this opening game. The defence may take a step back in the absence of Dan Quinn, and they’re also dealing with injuries. That piles the pressure on Dak Prescott to make the most of his opportunities, but this Browns team will do a reasonable job of making him feel pressure in the pocket. We’ll side with the better defence to edge it.

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NFL Betting FAQs

Betting on the moneyline

The moneyline is a two-way market which gives you the option between betting on the home team or the away team.

If a game finishes level and goes to overtime, teams will continue to play for additional time and your bet is still valid.

How does NFL point-spread betting work?

The bookmakers assign a favourite for every match. The favourite will be -1 or greater, whilst the underdog will be +1 or greater.

Think of minus as a deficit to overcome, plus as an advantage to hold on to. If a team is -1, they must win by two clear points to beat the point spread.

If a team is +1, they need to avoid defeat to maintain their advantage and cover the point spread.

In the event the favourite wins by one, the bet is void, or ‘pushed’, and you’ll get your money back.

Why bet on the NFL point spread?

The advantage of betting on the point spread is that you get to bet at better odds. Whilst a favourite may be slim pickings at 1/2, for example, they may be as high as 9/10 on the point spread.

You’ll need them to win by a certain number of points, but it can be a worthwhile price to pay.

How does NFL total betting work?

The bookmakers set the total for each NFL game, which is influenced by historical factors such as results, offensive output and defensive efficiency. Basically, how good or bad a team is with or without the ball.

For example, if the total is set at 50.5, 50 or fewer points means the game has finished under the total, whilst 51 or higher means the game has gone over the total.

Sometimes you’ll see whole numbers, such as 50. In the event the game finishes with that number of points, you’ll get your money back.

Can I combine NFL bets into an acca?

Yes. Doubles, trebles, and accas are all possible when betting on the NFL. Sometimes you’ll see these labelled as parlays if you’re using an American website.

The advantage of an acca is being able to bet at much bigger odds, whilst the risk is you’re more likely to lose your money, albeit a lower stake than backing all four bets separately.

Alternative point spreads and alternative total

Because an NFL game can produce a wide-ranging number of points, you have plenty of choices when it comes to betting markets.

For example, if you identify the Kansas City Chiefs should win, but you aren’t betting on them to win by five or more points, you can take your pick.

The alternative markets allow you to bet on Kansas -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, and so on. If you’re feeling brave and want bigger odds, you may chance -6.

The same logic applies to the points total, so you’ll be able to adjust the number as you see fit.

This can be a useful strategy when you want to place an NFL acca but reduce the risk by betting at safer odds.

Prop betting

From time to time, you may see Planet Sport use prop bets. A prop bet is anything that doesn’t directly determine the outcome of the match.

You can bet on touchdown scorer, number of touchdowns or field goals scored, how many yards the quarterback will throw the ball, player catches, tackles, fumbles, and much more.

How we pick our NFL tips

The Planet Sport team has extensive experience in the sports betting industry, including over a decade’s worth of experience betting on the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB.

Each week, our expert runs the rules over the week’s fixtures and uses their own systems, plus some tried and tested situations that have stood the test of time, to find mistakes in lines and identify the best NFL picks.