• Need some help determining which teams to bet in an always difficult Week 18?
• My SBD formula and I have offered our favorite upset picks for Week 18 in the NFL
• See the underdogs we are betting on the moneyline Saturday and Sunday

Week 18, or the final week of the 2024-25 NFL regular season, is upon us, and we have 16 games available for betting across Saturday and Sunday. However, navigating Week 18 is always a tough task, as we face the extra challenge of many teams playing with nothing on the line as we try to make some NFL picks. My formula and I have teamed up to provide what we feel are the best underdogs to bet on the moneyline in Week 18.

My SBD formula got crushed last week, going 0-5 on its upset picks. I did disclose that three of the five had extremely tight margins, though. I only did better by default, as I went 0-2. After my formula’s performance over the past two weeks, I would certainly understand you wanting to fade it. This has been, without a doubt, the worst season my formula has had picking upsets – I have been tracking it for five years now. It always comes on very hot in the playoffs, but I do want to disclose it gets a little shaken by all the uncertain player statuses for Week 18.

Nevertheless, here are our favorite NFL picks for Week 18.

Week 18 NFL Picks

My SBD formula is calling for four upsets in Week 18, and I am picking two. However, my two underdogs also show up on my formula’s list of predicted upsets. So, in total, there are four upsets being predicted above. As always, be sure you shop for the best line on any of the picks above before placing your bets. You can use our NFL odds page, which highlights the best odds available for each side in every game.

To be clear, Miami was the favorite in their matchup with the Jets at the time of writing this. My SBD formula has Miami winning the game, and should the line move towards the Jets, that would be another upset pick from my formula. Before you make any bets in Week 18, though, be sure you know which NFL teams are resting their starters.

For further transparency into my formula’s predicted upsets, it has a couple very tight margins of victory in Week 18:

• 49ers to beat the Cardinals by 0.2 points
• Seahawks to beat the Rams by 3 points
• Chiefs to beat the Broncos by 3.1 points
• Lions to beat the Vikings by 3.6 points
• Steelers to beat the Bengals by 4.2 points

Three of those games are included in the upsets my formula is calling for, but there are two other games where the favorite is not predicted to win by much that you could consider taking a swing on. But that’s as deep as I will go into my SBD formula’s predictions; you can get a little more detail into its Week 18 NFL picks by following @SBD on Twitter/X. For now, I will provide some analysis on why I like the two underdogs I have highlighted above.

Texans Over Titans

I discussed DeMeco Ryans’ current decision to play his starters (at least at the time of writing this) in my Week 18 NFL TD picks, and will say again here that I am going to trust he plays them for a decent portion of this game.

After losing Tank Dell in Week 16, Houston’s offense did not score a single point and only managed 211 yards against a Baltimore defense that had been giving up a ton of yards through the air. The Texans are trying to insert disgruntled WR Diontae Johnson to replace the loss of Dell, and the former Panther/Raven will make his Texans debut this Sunday.

With how bad the offense has looked lately, I don’t think Houston has the luxury of resting their starters. I believe they need to get CJ Stroud comfortable with Johnson, as they’re going to need some offense in their wild card matchup with one of the Ravens, Steelers, or Chargers.

Up against a bad Titans team, who would be better off losing this game and who the Texans already lost to this season, I can’t say no to the plus odds.

• Pick: Texans moneyline (+106 at FanDuel)

49ers Over Cardinals

I do not understand how this Cardinals team, who has dropped five of their last six, which includes a loss to the Carolina Panthers, is laying 4.5 points to anyone, let alone a decent 49ers team.

I do appreciate that Brock Purdy is not playing, but there are few backups I have more confidence in than Josh Dobbs. The journeyman looked good in his couple snaps against the Lions last week, and has a history of stepping in with short notice and running an effective offense.

Dobbs is more than capable of handling everything Kyle Shanahan will ask of him, and though he will also be without Deebo Samuel, he will have Isaac Guerendo, George Kittle (maybe), Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall out there with him. More importantly, he will have the better coach in this game, in my opinion, which I think is the biggest factor in a game like this, where both sides are going to be without some of their starters.

Again, this pick boils down to Arizona being a mediocre team at best, but a bad team as of late. I do not believe the Cardinals should be anywhere near this heavily favored.

• Pick: 49ers moneyline (+185 at bet365)