The bye weeks are here for the 2024 NFL season. Although the volume of games drops from a full slate to 14 in Week 5, Sporting News’ picks and predictions against the spread remain challenging.
While the Lions, Eagles, Chargers, and Titans have open dates, there’s plenty of intriguing action, including a great London game and a classic NFC-AFC Super Bowl rivalry. There also are plenty of key early division tilts to consider, starting on Thursday night.
Here’s the latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications.
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(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
NFL picks against the spread for Week 5
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Game of Midweek: Buccaneers at Falcons (-2, 43.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
This is a sneaky revenge game for Falcons coach Raheem Morris, who once held that same job for the Buccaneers. He has his pass defense playing well with reinforcements on the pass rush and secondary. The Bucs have sprung more leaks than usual under their defensive-minded coach, Todd Bowles, as their run defense is a weakness. With Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons can exploit that well, more so than the Bucs vs. an even weaker run defense.
Pick: Falcons win 24-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Tom Brady fires back at Baker Mayfield over ‘joy’ comment
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Game of the Week: Cowboys at Steelers (-2, 43 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Steelers like to be relentless with their running game, especially with Justin Fields now a big part of it. The Cowboys fixed the run defense big-time against the Giants and can contain another sputtering attack. The Steelers will be fine if this game turns into a physical grind, knowing their pass rush can rebound vs. a maligned, transitional Cowboys’ offensive line. Dallas will have trouble keeping Pittsburgh honest with the run, allowing an angry T.J. Watt & Co. to tee off back at home.
Pick: Steelers win 20-16 and cover the spread.
MORE: Micah Parsons injury update
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Lock of the Week: 49ers (-7.5, 50.5 o/u) over Cardinals
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers have gotten Brock Purdy revved up as a downfield passer, unlocking more deep weapons even with Brandon Aiyuk pouting into shaky production. The Cardinals’ defense cannot stop the run and will struggle with another offense that can spread the ball around in the middle of the field. Kyler Murray is slumping, and seeing Nick Bosa and this front on the road won’t bust it.
Pick: 49ers win 31-14 and cover the spread.
WEEK 5 FANTASY RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
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Upset of the Week: Bengals (+2.5, 51 o/u) over Ravens
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens should be licking their chops with Derrick Henry to keep going nuts against the Bengals’ No. 25 run defense. There’s also a chance to bury their AFC North rivals early in the division race. But Joe Burrow got Cincinnati off the mat last week, and with his full cadre of receivers, he can find some good matchups to exploit in the passing game. The division race is meant to be long with emotional twists and turns, and this is the first one.
Pick: Bengals win 27-24.
MORE: Derrick Henry nearly sets NFL record vs. Bills | Henry’s speed wows on 87-yard TD run
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Jets at Vikings (+2.5, 40.5 o/u)
Sunday 9:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network (in London)
The Vikings are sizzling at 4-0 and living off a lot of takeaways to facilitate the efficient play of Sam Darnold. The former Jets QB isn’t seeing ghosts anymore, but across the pond, he will face the fog of a tough Jets defense. Aaron Rodgers will do a better job of protecting himself and the ball against his old NFC North rivals. This also will be a key rebound game for Breece Hall, Braelon Allen, and the running game in a defensive-minded escape.
Pick: Jets win 20-17.
MORE: Sam Darnold playing like MVP ahead of Jets game | Penalties, poor pass protection doom Jets vs. Broncos
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Panthers at Bears (-4, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Andy Dalton’s revenge tour continues after he played well but didn’t win vs. the Bengals. Dalton will face a tricky pass defense on the road, as the Bears have the corners to contain his top receivers and get after him with the pass rush. Caleb Williams is finding his comfort zone playing off the run and improving in spreading the ball around to the right passing matchups every week.
Pick: Bears win 27-14 and cover the spread.
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Dolphins (-1, 38.5 o/u) at Patriots
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Dolphins should be using Tyler Huntley again to lead a run-heavy attack from quarterback. He can also revive the success of throwing downfield to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle against a Patriots’ defense that can give up plenty of big pass plays. De’Von Achane also gets into the fun with a few long runs.
Pick: Dolphins win 24-13 and cover the spread.
MORE: Rob Gronkowski says Drake Maye shouldn’t start over Jacob Brissett
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Browns at Commanders (-3, 44 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Deshaun Watson has plenty of offensive dysfunction around him, from receivers’ mistakes to an inconsistent, Nick Chubb-less running game muddling behind broken blocking. He’s trying to do too much and is ending up doing too little. The Commanders have been much more put together around rookie Jayden Daniels, and Dan Quinn got the front-four pass rush going at just the right time before this matchup.
Pick: Commanders win 27-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Did Bears err passing on Jayden Daniels? | Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston yell at teammates
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Colts at Jaguars (-2.5, 46 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts will be hoping they have Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Anthony Richardson (hip) in there for Shane Steichen, but they also can feel good about Joe Flacco having more pop with the wide receivers downfield against a reeling Jaguars secondary. However, at 0-4, desperation kicks into overdrive for Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence, buoyed by the running game and defense to steal a much-needed home win.
Pick: Jaguars win 23-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Anthony Richardson injury update | Jonathan Taylor injury update | Should Joe Flacco start for Colts?
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Bills at Texans (pick ’em, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Stefon Diggs revenge game will be a real thing, as the former Bills wide receiver will play with a chip on his shoulder for the home team. This will be a busy passing duel between C.J. Stroud and Josh Allen based on the nature of these offenses, and in that scenario, Stroud has the more game-changing weapons, led by Nico Collins. Houston also will be willing to run the ball more in key situations to better set up Stroud.
Pick: Texans win 27-24
MORE: How Josh Allen fumble halted Bills’ comeback vs. Ravens
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Raiders at Broncos (-2.5, 36.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Raiders beat the Ravens and Browns but lost to the Chargers and Panthers. The Broncos lost to the Seahawks and Steelers but beat the Buccaneers and Jets. It’s difficult to know which version of either team will show up, especially with the added twist of a heated divisional rivalry game. Defense should rule with limited offenses on the field, and Denver is hotter on that side of the ball.
Pick: Broncos win 20-17 and cover the spread.
MORE: Tyler Badie injury update after scary sideline incident | Bo Nix throws for -7 yards in first half vs. Jets
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Packers (-3.5, 48 o/u) at Rams
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Packers had an erratic Jordan Love in his first game back, but other than that, he got the passing game humming again with a good variety of weapons. Love should rip into the Los Angeles’ secondary for big plays, and this is also a chance for Josh Jacobs to get the rushing attack on track. Matthew Stafford doesn’t have the reliable firepower as he falls to another NFC North foe.
Pick: Packers win 34-24 and cover the spread.
MORE: Fans joke about Jordan Love’s tribute to Brett Favre | Christian Watson injury update
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Giants at Seahawks (-6, 42 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Giants are on the brink of benching Daniel Jones, and there’s a chance it happens here in a hostile environment with former Seahawk Drew Lock being the No. 2. But their limited, compressed offense is in trouble regardless, as the Seahawks will step on the gas and be able to jump out to a fast start with big plays passing and running. Seattle will contain the run and be able to pressure Jones and/or Lock into mistakes.
Pick: Seahawks win 27-17 and cover the spread.
MORE: Drops — not Daniel Jones — doom Giants vs. Cowboys | Malik Nabers injury update
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Saints at Chiefs (-5.5, 42.5 o.u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Chiefs defense will be able to slow down Alvin Kamara and the running game and make this a passing duel between Patrick Mahomes and former Raider Derek Carr, who’s had some big moments in Kansas City in the past. Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy help Mahomes make more clutch downfield plays off-script than the more tentative Carr facing the inside heat of Chris Jones.
Pick: Chiefs win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Rashee Rice injury update | Chiefs will need even more from Travis Kelce
Stats of the Week
- Week 4 record straight up: 10-4
- Week 4 record against the spread: 8-5
- Season-to-date straight up: 38-24
- Season-to-date against the spread: 27-20