NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
Scott Pritchard, PritchardsPicks.com, @Pritchardwins
Raiders (3-12) at Saints (5-10)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Raiders -1½, 37½
Analysis: With coaching jobs on the line and professional pride at stake, both teams will likely go all-out for a win. Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell is riding high after last week’s clutch performance, which showcased his ability to evade pass rushers. In contrast, Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler has struggled in place of the injured Derek Carr, posting a 68.7 passer rating and throwing just two touchdowns against three interceptions while going 0-4 straight up and against the spread as a starter. The Raiders’ 10th-ranked pass defense should pose a significant challenge for Rattler, while the Saints’ bottom-four pass defense might struggle to contain the Raiders’ passing attack.
Pick: Raiders 20, Saints 17
Cowboys (7-8) at Eagles (12-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Eagles -7, 38
Analysis: The Cowboys, now eliminated from playoff contention, are relegated to spoiler status, while the Eagles are poised to seize the NFC East crown and the No. 2 seed. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has been ruled out after his concussion last week, so we’ll see a matchup featuring second-string quarterbacks from both teams that gives neither a decisive edge. The Eagles have the league’s stingiest defense for total yards allowed on the ground and in the air. Their rushing game leads the NFL and can still thrive even without Hurts under center. The Cowboys’ anemic running game, ranked 28th, and below average defense against the run and pass should enable the home team to come away with a key rivalry game win.
Pick: Eagles 23, Cowboys 17
Colts (7-8) at Giants (2-13)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Colts -7½, 40½
Analysis: The Colts’ eighth-ranked rushing offense should thrive against the Giants’ second-to-last ranked defense. The Giants, last in the NFL in points scored, might struggle to capitalize on their desire to avoid a winless home record. Giants quarterback Drew Lock will have the added stress of worrying if his banged-up offensive line can provide adequate protection to improve upon his lowly 55.8 passer rating and turnover-to-touchdown ratio of 6 to 1.
Pick: Colts 21, Giants 17
Titans (3-12) at Jaguars (3-12)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Jaguars -1, 39½
Analysis: Losing this game might marginally improve each team’s 2025 NFL draft position, but is it worth the potential demoralization? While both these teams have struggled this season by accumulating a bottom-10 rating in almost every offensive category, the Titans boast the league’s top passing defense, which could stifle the Jaguars’ pass-reliant offense. Both teams will be relying on backup quarterbacks, so this game might hinge on which defense can make the crucial stop, which gives the Titans the clear advantage.
Pick: Titans 21, Jaguars 20
Jets (4-11) at Bills (12-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -10, 46
Analysis: Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers is on the cusp of history, needing one more touchdown pass to become the fifth NFL quarterback to reach 500 TD passes. Considering the Bills’ bottom-eight passing defense, the question is not if Rodgers will get his touchdown, but how many more he can secure before the final whistle. The Jets defense has been stingy in the passing and rushing yards it allows, top six in both categories, but generous in points per game. That plays well into Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s MO, as he tends to find a way to get the ball in the end zone at crunch time. The Bills would like to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC, which gives them home-field advantage through the first two playoff rounds.
Pick: Bills 28, Jets 20
Panthers (4-11) at Buccaneers (8-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Buccaneers -8½, 48
Analysis: The Bucs’ playoff hopes require them to win their final two games and the Falcons to lose at least once, or the Commanders to lose twice. Their previous meeting in Carolina went into overtime, where the Panthers had victory in their grasp when running back Chuba Hubbard fumbled and the Bucs drove for the game-winning field goal. The Tampa Bay offense remains elite, garnering top five ratings in passing yards, third-down conversion percentage and points. But the Bucs’ defense has been a liability with a near worst pass defense, leaving a small ray of hope for Panthers quarterback Bryce Young.
Pick: Buccaneers 27, Panthers 21
Dolphins (7-8) at Browns (3-12)
Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Dolphins -6½, 37
Analysis: The Dolphins are clinging to slim playoff hopes. They face a Browns team struggling to find its footing on offense, hampered by injuries to key starters. The Browns’ offense has mustered 16.3 points per game, the second-worst output in the league. This vulnerability plays directly into the Dolphins’ hands, as their defense boasts impressive rankings, including fifth-best in total yards allowed and third-best in third-down conversion percentage. But Miami’s lack of offensive firepower, being at or below average in every major category and up against an overworked but respectable Cleveland defense, should keep this one competitive.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Browns 17
Packers (11-4) at Vikings (13-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Vikings -1, 48½
Analysis: The Vikings are riding an eight-game winning streak, including a thrilling 31-29 victory over the Packers in Green Bay earlier this season. But beneath the surface, Minnesota’s defense has been vulnerable, particularly against the pass, where they’ve allowed the third-most yards in the league. This weakness presents an enticing opportunity for Packers quarterback Jordan Love to exploit. But Green Bay’s passing game has been average, with their true strength lying in their potent rushing attack, led by running back Josh Jacobs. Unfortunately for the Packers, the Vikings boast the league’s second-best rush defense, which will keep intense pressure on Love to perform. The Vikings’ offense will face its own problems against a top-10 defense in all categories. This one could come down to which quarterback performs in the clutch, and that describes the season for Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.
Pick: Vikings 27, Packers 21
Falcons (8-7) at Commanders (10-5)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Commanders -3½, 46½
Analysis: This game features a showdown of the Nos. 2 and 8 picks in the 2024 NFL draft, as Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels faces Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Penix has already made a significant impact by unseating Kirk Cousins as the starting quarterback for the Falcons, and in his first start last week, he led his team to a blowout win over the Giants with significant improvements in all offensive metrics. Now he faces a tougher challenge against the Commanders, who boast the NFL’s fourth-best pass defense and an offense that scores the fourth-most points in the league. But the Falcons’ pass rush has seen a marked improvement in the last four games, producing an NFL-best 16 sacks during that span. And after emotionally draining one-score wins the prior two weeks versus the Eagles and Saints, could this be a good spot for a Commanders letdown before the rivalry game next week against the Cowboys?
Pick: Falcons 24, Commanders 23
Lions (13-2) at 49ers (6-9)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
Line/total: Lions -3½, 50½
Analysis: The 49ers saw their playoff hopes end last weekend, but they could redeem the mood and confidence of the team by getting a win at home versus the Lions. Although Detroit has looked stellar on offense with a league-best 32.9 points and 429 yards of offense per game, it has one glaring weakness that San Francisco should be able to capitalize on, and that’s one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses (No. 27). The Niners have the league’s reigning passer rating leader from last season in Brock Purdy, and he has led San Francisco to the seventh-most productive passing offense in the NFL this season. Defense wins championships, but it also wins budding rivalry games like this, and the Niners have the goods with the NFL’s second-stingiest defense in yards allowed, along with a lockdown pass defense rated third in the league. Add in a few feckless decisions by Lions coach Dan Campbell, and this game could be far more than a three-point win for the Niners.
Pick: 49ers 27, Lions 24