The Bills are getting points despite winning straight up in 11 of the last 12 head-to-head matchups. Josh Allen didn’t look like he missed Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis much while hanging 34 points on the Cardinals last week.

Miami’s secondary is a different animal than Arizona’s, but the one-dimensional Dolphins offense struggled too much to run the ball last week, rushing for just 2.8 yards per carry. We like Buffalo +2.5.

49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is now 18-7 against the spread as a favorite after Monday night’s deconstruction of the Jets. As backup running back Jordan Mason proved with his 147-yard breakout game, there’s no need to rush back Christian McCaffrey from his calf and Achilles injuries.

There’s also no need to wager on Sam Darnold – who’s just 23-33-1 against the spread in his career – if he’s getting less than a touchdown. The play here is San Francisco -6.

Two rookie head coaches coming off season-opening wins will look to stay undefeated in Week 2. The Seahawks would be heavier favorites if the Bengals didn’t sleepwalk against the Patriots in the opener, so thank Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow for keeping the odds more profitable.

Cincinnati missed 13 tackles against New England last week, so the Patriots likely won’t be so lucky again. Take Seattle to cover -3.5 in Foxborough.

After Jayden Daniels set an NFL record for the most rushing yards by a quarterback in his NFL debut (88), Commanders head coach Dan Quinn stated that he’d like for his rookie QB to “remain a passer first.” You would too if you watched the Giants’ secondary last week against Sam Darnold. Take Washington -1.5 at home.

The Panthers’ defense allowed a net efficiency rating of 99.4 (scale of 1-100) to the Saints last week. Justin Herbert might not have enough weapons to get the Chargers to the postseason, but he won’t need them to cover 6.5 points this week.

These two teams combined to score 80 points in their season-opening wins. Since 2012, teams that scored 30-plus points in Week 1 and are either favorites of six points or less or are underdogs are just 19-35 against the spread.

The Saints offense that exploited a bad Panthers defense is more likely to regress than the Cowboys attack that dropped 37 on a good Browns defense. Lay the 6.5 points and take Dallas at home.

Malik Willis will start at quarterback for the Packers, replacing the injured Jordan Love. The clips of Colts QB Anthony Richardson showing off his arm last week went viral, but he wasn’t nearly as efficient as he needed to be in his season-opening loss to the Texans.

Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur is 14-3 against the spread. Even if Willis’ track record as a starter is very limited, we’ll assume he can hand the ball off effectively to Josh Jacobs, who will be running against a defense that allowed 213 yards on the ground in Week 1. We’ll take the points with the Packers.

Even if we chalk up the Browns’ miserable defensive performance at home last week against the Cowboys as an outlier, and even if we acknowledge that Deshaun Watson is 19-13 against the spread as an underdog, it takes a leap of faith to bet on Watson on the road against a Jaguars team that only lost to the Dolphins on a last-second field goal.

Since 1990, 36 teams have blown double-digit leads and lost their season opener, and 28 of them covered in Week 2. We’ll bet on Jacksonville being the 29th.

Aaron Rodgers may not be able to move, but the Titans might not be able to score. Will Levis’ Week 1 Pro Football Focus grade was a putrid 29.9 and Tennessee lost to the Bears despite Chicago scoring zero offensive touchdowns.

Rodgers showed some glimpses of what his arm can still do on Monday night, and he has enough weapons to cover this number as a road favorite.

This is a rematch of a Divisional Round game from last season that the Lions won, but that game was tied into the fourth quarter. Baker Mayfield had the NFL’s highest Week 1 passer rating (146.4), and he’s been a reasonably reliable quarterback to wager on as an underdog (23-22) despite playing mostly on teams not nearly as loaded with skill players as Tampa Bay is this season.

Detroit was tied with the Raiders for the league’s best record against the spread (12-5) last year, then covered in their overtime win over the Rams last week. There has to be regression at some point, right? We’ll take the points and the Buccaneers.

We just told you how good the Raiders were against the spread last season, right? Well, if Antonio Pierce is as passive as he was with his decisions in last week’s loss to the Chargers, that’s not likely to be repeated in 2024.

That said, the Ravens had too many offensive issues in their sloppy Week 1 loss to the Chiefs. This number is also too big considering that Baltimore has covered only 47% of the time as home favorites under John Harbaugh. Las Vegas should keep this fairly close and cover +9.

Bet on Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray when he’s a favorite at your own peril. Murray is 9-15 against the spread when his team is laying points.

Sean McVay may not have Puka Nacua this week after the second-year receiver suffered an injury in Detroit on Sunday night, but his teams cover 53.4% of the time when they’re listed as an underdog. Arizona’s defense was also way too shaky against Buffalo last week, so we’ll back Los Angeles here.

Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes have faced each other four times and each matchup was decided by exactly three points. Tee Higgins’ possible absence is worth considering, as is Cincinnati’s putrid offensive showing in Week 1 against New England.

That said, Week 1 favorites of at least six points that lose have a track record of bouncing back the following week, covering 76% of the time this century. Burrow can’t play much worse than he did last week and is 13-8 against the spread as an underdog.

Even if the Bengals ruined your NFL survivor pool chances in their opener, take the points with Cincinnati this week.

The Steelers were the only AFC North team with a Week 1 win because they were able to take advantage of poor opposing quarterback play, which is worth keeping in mind when you consider the beginning of the Bo Nix era in Denver. Nix threw two interceptions in his NFL debut last week, and this week he will face a defense that had the league’s third-highest Quarterback Knocked-Down percentage in Week 1.

Advanced numbers weren’t too harsh on the Broncos’ run defense last week, but they did allow 146 yards rushing, including 30 yards and a touchdown to Seattle quarterback Geno Smith. Justin Fields and Najee Harris should be productive enough on the ground to help Pittsburgh cover as a road underdog.

Caleb Williams was bailed out by the Bears’ defense in winning his NFL debut last week. C.J. Stroud’s weaponry was on display in the Texans’ season-opening win, but he was sacked four times and now goes up against a Chicago front that was No. 1 in pass rush win rate last week.

This is too big of a number to lay against the Bears’ defense, and Williams will likely play better than he did last week. We’ll take the points with Chicago.

After watching the Falcons spin their tires offensively in their Week 1 loss to the Steelers, fans in Atlanta are wondering if the Michael Penix era can begin sooner than expected. Kirk Cousins was miserable against Pittsburgh, but Jalen Hurts had four turnover-worthy plays against the Packers last Friday in Brazil, and only six teams allowed fewer yards per play last week than the Falcons.

The number here is a little too hefty to trust Hurts, so we’ll grab the points with Atlanta and hope Cousins doesn’t hasten the eventual Penix takeover.

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