As the 2024 NFL season surges toward the one-quarter mark, the big underdogs continue to roll, the breakout QBs keep flourishing, and the rookie wideouts are dazzling the masses. It’s been a rocky but exhilarating ride, and we’re already psyched to punch our ticket for Week 5 with a new batch of best bets.
Last week was a good one and a reminder that the early bird gets the worm. We dropped our first batch of best bets last Monday morning and put you on the Cowboys -4.5 at the Giants. If you snoozed, you lost out on the -4.5 and got stuck with Dallas -5.5 — and then ultimately got screwed when Brandon Aubrey’s late miss made the final score 20-15 Dallas.
Excuse the Belichickian speak, but in professional betting, there are “no days off.”
MORE: Week 5 odds, lines | Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, best bet
Our best spread bets and over/under wagers each went 3-0, and we finished 7-3 total going into the Monday Night Football doubleheader (we’ll update our total record after the MNF games). That makes our best bets 25-18-2 on the season, a healthy record despite a particularly volatile first month of football.
Here’s the best moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop bets on BetMGM and Caesars for this weekend’s slate.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Against the spread (ATS)
All odds courtesy of BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.
Commanders -2.5 vs. Browns (-130 on BetMGM and Caesars)
The Commanders have become a very fun team to watch, and they’re also making bettors quite a bit of money. They’re 3-1 and leading the NFC East, and Jayden Daniels has given us no reason to think he will lose to the Browns at home. Just look at the rookie QB’s numbers through four games:
- Completion rate: 82.1% (1st in NFL)
- QB rating: 107.4 (3rd)
- Yards per pass thrown: 8.5 (4th)
- Rushing yards: 218 (2nd among QBs)
Talk about electricity. The kid is not just the odds-on leader to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, he’s now popping up on MVP futures boards. Once he beats the Browns’ defense, he could end up landing in the top 10.
Three-time All-Pro pass-rusher Myles Garrett has been dealing with a litany of injuries this season, and now he must deal with the most cagey opposing QB of Cleveland’s young season. The Jaguars, Giants, and Raiders were poor practice rounds for the Browns — Daniels is already on a completely different stratosphere than Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew.
It’s also impossible to trust Deshaun Watson, who has failed to reach 150 passing yards in three of Cleveland’s first four games this season. He has looked truly bad at various stages of the first four weeks, during which the Browns have failed to exceed 18 points in a game. Coincidentally, Washington has held two of its past three opponents to 18 or fewer.
Shop around to find the ‘manders at -2.5, or bet them down by taking on a little extra juice. We like Washington to win by four or more, but we love Dan Quinn’s squad to win by a field goal or more. Buying a safer number at -130 is better than betting a volatile -3 at -110.
SCORE PREDICTION: Commanders 23, Browns 20
Other Week 5 spreads worth a look: Panthers +4 at Bears (-110 on Caesars and BetMGM); Broncos -2.5 vs. Raiders (-105 on BetMGM); Saints +5.5 at Chiefs (-110 on BetMGM)
NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Moneyline
Texans -105 vs. Bills (BetMGM and Caesars)
C.J. Stroud was more than just a cool Rookie of the Year story last season — he’s a future MVP in this league. And Josh Allen, as he showed us on Sunday Night Football against reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, is far from the runaway MVP we thought he was during Buffalo’s 3-0 start.
A Danielle Hunter-led pass-rush on the road might make Allen’s life difficult for a second consecutive game, as should the Texans’ dynamic duo of Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs (the latter of whom gets to mount a revenge game against his former squad). The Ravens were doing whatever they wanted against the Bills on Sunday, while Allen had very little time in the pocket to read the field.
Joe Mixon might be back for Houston, too! We like the Texans to emerge victorious in this huge game, and launch themselves firmly into the Super Bowl conversation. Stray from the crowd that’s backing Allen to out-duel a legit AFC rival — he’s 5-13 lifetime against Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. Soon we will add Stroud to this vaunted list of AFC QB greats who have slayed the Bills.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Texans 26, Bills 20
Dolphins -115 at Patriots (BetMGM)
The Patriots are bad. Don’t judge them by their surprise Week 1 win in Cincinnati — judge them by their past two losses to the Jets and 49ers by a combined margin of 38 points.
With a terrible offensive line, Jacoby Brissett is in danger in New England. And with a running back in Rhamondre Stevenson who coughs the ball up more than my 14-year-old cat coughs up hairballs, it’s tough for the Pats to get pressure off the veteran QB.
Then when Jerod Mayo’s squad gets down big, there aren’t enough downfield playmakers to help get it back into the game. It’s all ugly. With one start under his belt for Miami, Tyler Huntley and his plethora of skill-position weapons should walk away from Foxboro with a W.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Dolphins 23, Patriots 20
Other Week 5 moneylines to consider: Colts (+122) at Jaguars (Caesars); Cowboys (+110) at Steelers (Caesars)
NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Over/under totals
Jets at Vikings (London): OVER 41 (-110 on BetMGM and Caesars)
These squads will be squaring off in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and most bettors will be hitting the UNDER here as it’s an unusual venue, each team will be flying 8-10 hours total to get there, and both the Jets and Vikings have strong defenses.
However, this projection is already built in preparation for under bets, and it doesn’t take into account how good the Vikings have been. Sam Darnold has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate (+1000 on BetMGM, fourth-shortest on the board), Aaron Jones has 287 total yards over the past two weeks, and both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison have returned to full health.
The only question mark around this OVER is the Jets’ offense, which laid an egg against the Broncos in Week 4. However, Denver’s defense and Minnesota’s defense are on entirely different levels, so we wouldn’t be surprised if Gang Green puts up close to the 24-point total it finished Weeks 2 and 3 with against the Titans and Patriots. The 22-19 projection implied by these odds simply feels too low.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Vikings 24, Jets 21
Other strong Week 5 over/under bets: Ravens at Bengals: OVER 51.5 (-110 on BetMGM and Caesars); Raiders at Broncos: UNDER 37 (-110 on BetMGM)