NFL BETTING BREAKDOWN
“Dr. Alan” Dumond, three-time Westgate SuperContest top-15 finisher, Golden Nugget Ultimate Football Challenge runner-up
Raiders (2-6) at Bengals (3-5)
Time: 10 a.m., Fox
Line/total: Bengals -7, 45
Analysis: The Bengals are without a doubt the NFL’s most disappointing team this year — just ask the thousands of Circa Survivor contestants who got knocked out of the pool by them. On the flip side, the Raiders are pretty much where most expected them to be. The Bengals have more upside to turn their season around, largely due to quarterback Joe Burrow, and that will start here by getting their first home win of the season. However, the Bengals are an untrustworthy home favorite, having gone 0-4 against the spread in that role this season, while the Raiders are 2-0 ATS in their past two games.
Pick: Bengals 24, Raiders 20
Patriots (2-6) at Titans (1-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Titans -3½, 39
Analysis: This AFC battle features two rebuilding squads in one of the least appealing games on this week’s slate. The Patriots are off a rare upset division home win over the Jets and could suffer a letdown. The Titans come in off of two blowout road losses but find themselves in the rare favorite role. Neither choice is appealing, but we’ll give a slight lean to the Titans to bounce back in front of their home crowd.
Pick: Titans 21, Patriots 16
Chargers (4-3) at Browns (2-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Chargers -1, 42½
Analysis: Backup QB Jameis Winston led the Browns to last week’s home upset win over the Ravens, energizing the team and fans. The Chargers arrive as a small road favorite for this early start time fresh off a blowout home win over the lowly Saints. The Chargers’ defense has been exceptional, giving up 20 points or less in all seven games. None of their games have topped 40 total points, as LA is 6-1 to the under. Look for a low-scoring affair on the shores of Lake Erie.
Pick: Browns 20, Chargers 17
Saints (2-6) at Panthers (1-7)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Saints -7½, 43½
Analysis: This NFC South battle features two squads on extended losing streaks, as the Saints have dropped six straight and the Panthers have lost five in a row. Saints QB Derek Carr is expected to be back, which will give New Orleans the QB edge over Carolina’s Bryce Young. As bad as the Panthers are, can you really trust the Saints as a division road favorite laying a touchdown? If you feel the need to get involved in this game featuring two bottom-feeders, a simple rule to follow is to take the points with the ugly ’dog.
Pick: Saints 23, Panthers 17
Dolphins (2-5) at Bills (6-2)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Bills -6½, 50
Analysis: The Dolphins have failed to live up to preseason expectations, but getting QB Tua Tagovailoa back should result in a better second half of the season. On the flip side, the Bills have a been a juggernaut of late, winning three straight while topping 30 points in each of their past two games. The Bills dominated the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year, winning 31-10, and have won 12 of the past 13 meetings with the Fish. Most are expecting an easy blowout Bills win this afternoon, but look for the desperate Dolphins to dig deep and give their division rival a scare.
Prediction: Bills 28, Dolphins 24
Cowboys (3-4) at Falcons (5-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Falcons -3, 52
Analysis: This a matchup of squads trending in different directions, as the Falcons enter as winners in four of their past five games, while the Cowboys have lost two straight and four of six. The much-maligned Dallas defense has given up 77 points in its past two games and will once again be without star linebacker Micah Parsons. The resurgent Falcons offense has scored 31 points or more in three of their past four games.
Pick: Falcons 30, Cowboys 24
Broncos (5-3) at Ravens (5-3)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Ravens -9½, 46½
Analysis: Both teams have won five of six after 0-2 starts. The Ravens were expected to have a winning record at this point, but the Broncos have been a big surprise behind rookie QB Bo Nix. Denver’s defense has given up 18 points or less in six games, and although the Ravens have an explosive offense — having scored 24 points or more in their past six games — this is just too many points to lay. The Broncos’ defense should keep them within this generous number.
Pick: Ravens 27, Broncos 20
Commanders (6-2) at Giants (2-6)
Time: 10 a.m.
Line/total: Commanders -4, 44½
Analysis: The Commanders, led by rookie phenom QB Jayden Daniels, have far exceeded preseason expectations, while the Giants are well on their way to having another losing season. Washington enters off a miracle win via a Hail Mary and has won six of its past seven games. The Commanders are the most popular public side this week against a Giants team that has lost four of five. This game sets up as a classic buy low and sell high on the home underdog Giants, who are playing with same-season division revenge, so we’ll take the points.
Pick: Commanders 20, Giants 17
Jaguars (2-6) at Eagles (5-2)
Time: 1:05 p.m.
Line/total: Eagles -7½, 45½
Analysis: Jacksonville’s Doug Pederson returns for the second time as a visiting coach at Philadelphia, which he guided to a win in the 2018 Super Bowl. He remains on the hot seat as the losses keep piling up for the Jaguars. The Eagles are playing their best football right now, as they are on a three-game winning streak and have won four of their past five. Philadelphia has failed to cover its past two games as a home favorite. But against a leaky Jaguars defense that has given up 30 points or more in three of their past four games, look for the Eagles to extend their winning streak to four games in a big way.
Pick: Eagles 31, Jaguars 17
Bears (4-3) at Cardinals (4-4)
Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS
Line/total: Cardinals -1, 44½
Analysis: The Cardinals enter on a two-game winning streak and are gunning for their first three-game win streak in three years. The Bears are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Commanders on a Hail Mary. Can the Bears bounce back after such a devastating defeat? We think that they can, as Chicago brings the far superior defense into this fray. The Bears’ stop unit has not allowed more than 21 points in a game this season, limiting five of their foes to 18 points or fewer.
Pick: Bears 24, Cardinals 17
Rams (3-4) at Seahawks (4-4)
Time: 1:25 p.m.
Line/total: Rams -1, 48
Analysis: Last week, the Rams welcomed back star wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and they made an immediate impact in a 30-20 victory over the Vikings. The Seahawks are coming off an embarrassing 31-10 blowout loss to the Bills, which was Seattle’s third home loss in a row. The Rams are a very popular public bet this weekend. But the Seahawks do not want to go into their bye week with a bad taste in their mouth.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Rams 21
Lions (6-1) at Packers (6-2)
Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox
Line/total: Lions -3, 47½
Analysis: This is an NFC North battle of heavyweights, and it’s easily the marquee game of the week. The Lions, under coach Dan Campbell, seem to do nothing but win and cover and score points. They’ve won and covered six of their seven games this season, and they have scored an astounding 172 points in their past four games. It may seem crazy to step in front of Detroit’s runaway freight train, but that is exactly what we’ll do here, as Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS as an underdog. This will be the Lions’ first outdoor game this season, and Detroit QB Jared Goff has often struggled in outdoor games.
Pick: Packers 27, Lions 24
Colts (4-4) at Vikings (5-2)
Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC
Line/total: Vikings -5½, 46½
Analysis: Colts QB Anthony Richardson has been benched in favor of Joe Flacco, which is seen as an upgrade. Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season. The Vikings have lost two straight after their 5-0 start, but this spot clearly favors Minnesota, which has had extra rest, having last played Oct. 24 on “Thursday Night Football.” The Colts are playing the second of back-to-back road games and their fourth away game in the past five weeks. Look for a motivated Vikings squad to ride the energy of their home crowd to a convincing victory.
Pick: Vikings 31, Colts 14
Buccaneers (4-4) at Chiefs (7-0)
Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ABC, ESPN
Line/total: Chiefs -9½, 45½
Analysis: The Bucs are banged up, and will be without their top two wide receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Last week, Tampa Bay was able to score 26 in a loss to the Falcons without their dynamic wideouts, but that will be tough to repeat against a stout Chiefs defense that has limited foes to 20 points or fewer in six of their seven games. Kansas City failed to cover as a 9-point favorite in last week’s 27-20 win over the Raiders, but the Chiefs will have no problem doing so in this one, as QB Patrick Mahomes will feast on a defense that has given up 27 points or more in each of their past four games.
Pick: Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 17