Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels: Which rookie quarterback is more impressive?
Sports Seriously’s Mackenzie Salmon asks Tyler Dragon about the rookie quarterbacks that are heading into Wildcard Weekend.
Sports Seriously
Who let the dogs out?
The Baha Men aren’t part of the wild-card weekend soundtrack, but this might be a good year to right that previous wrong. While NFL teams aren’t out chasing the mailman around, they are looking to topple some favorites that can shake up the playoff bracket. Six games are on the slate this weekend in the NFL, and the barking is only getting louder as we inch closer to kickoff.
Last year’s bracket only produced one upset in the opening round. This season, favorites are winning at an over 71% clip, which has Flutter Entertainment, the company that operates FanDuel Sportsbook, saying this season “has been the most customer-friendly since the launch of online sports betting, with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years.”
In other words, buckle up for a wild ride to the Super Bowl because the underdogs are bound to start barking at some point.
Here’s to hoping that wild-card weekend is especially wild this year. Otherwise, the NFL might want to start branding the slate as just “weekend” going forward.
Here’s a look at some of our favorite lines for wild-card weekend, courtesy of BetMGM.
Best picks against the spread NFL wild card
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans
The first game of the weekend is in Houston, a familiar place. The Texans are a mainstay in the 4:30 p.m. ET window to start the wild-card round, and some things never change. This year, they draw the upstart Chargers, who weren’t supposed to be here. L.A.’s first season under Jim Harbaugh has been a complete success, as the coach has redefined his team and changed the culture. Despite still being in the retool phase, the Chargers come in as a dangerous group thanks to a stingy defense.
They have the better quarterback, better coach and better defense. Houston has a receiver room that’s been decimated by injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, leaving them with an offense that isn’t scaring anyone. For all the good that C.J. Stroud did in his rookie year, Houston never made the jump to contender. Sometimes, making picks doesn’t have to be complicated. Harbaugh’s Chargers roll in Houston and book their trip to the divisional round.
Best upset picks of NFL wild card games
Denver Broncos (+9) at Buffalo Bills (-110)
Sound the alarms because the Buffalo Bills are on upset alert. The commonly held belief is that Buffalo is potentially primed to capture their first Super Bowl in franchise history, but this Denver team is no joke. Everyone loves to talk about rookie quarterbacks and their 5-17 record on the road in the playoffs, but Bo Nix hasn’t been playing like a rookie over the latter part of the season.
Over his last eight games, Nix has tossed 21 touchdowns to just six interceptions while completing 70.3% of passes. The signal-caller’s ability to protect the ball and use his legs to pick up first downs makes Denver’s offense dangerous, especially when combined with its top-notch defense.
And that’s how we land on the potential upset. Anyone hoping to beat Josh Allen will have to get after the quarterback, something Denver excels at. They lead the league in sacks (63) and allow the third-fewest points per game (18.3). The Bills’ second-ranked scoring offense (30.9) has carried them all season, making for quite the clash of styles. However, they also feasted on a lousy division, posting a 5-1 record that couldn’t exploit some serious defensive concerns in the secondary. This team is all Allen and it remains to be seen whether he can do it alone without an actual game-breaking receiver.
Denver has lost just one game by double digits this season and has been playing playoff games for weeks, while Buffalo wrapped up the division a month ago. In a clash between offense and defense, the Broncos have the recipe for success for a shocking upset on Sunday in Buffalo. Take the points and if you’re feeling frisky like us, that +350 moneyline is worth the price of admission. Bo-lieve in Bo.
Washington Commanders ML at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+140)
This rookie quarterback class has lived up to the hype, so it’s only natural that we’re doubling down on the future of the league this weekend. Jayden Daniels has his Commanders riding a five-game winning streak into the playoffs, while the Buccaneers barely avoided disaster, requiring a Week 18 win to get in.
While Tampa Bay won a weak division, Washington is a lot like Denver in that it wasn’t supposed to be here. Thanks to Daniels’ meteoric rise, the Commanders have overachieved and can now enjoy playing with house money the rest of the way. This game should feature plenty of points, and Washington’s dual-threat quarterback is the difference.
It feels like the wrong team is favored here. Tampa Bay landed the first punch in Week 1 with a 17-point victory over Washington in Daniels’ debut. The Commanders get revenge on the road and book their trip to Detroit for the divisional round.
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