Home » Ohio State-Texas betting guide: Will Buckeyes cover the spread?

Ohio State-Texas betting guide: Will Buckeyes cover the spread?

Ohio State-Texas betting guide: Will Buckeyes cover the spread?

The Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns meet in a historic College Football Playoff semifinal matchup on Friday night in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Texas, the last SEC team standing in the playoff, will face a Buckeyes team that is already the odds-on favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET (-140).

Ohio State opened as a five-point favorite over Texas after the Buckeyes easily handled No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl last week. The line has since moved a point up to -6 with the total moving down a point from 54.5 to 53.5 ahead of the game.

Defense has largely been the strength for a Longhorns team that has been inconsistent on offense at times during the postseason. Texas had ranked near the top in almost every defensive category over the course of the season. They face a Buckeyes team that has shined offensively with Will Howard at quarterback and some of the most talented skill position players in the nation around him, including Jeremiah Smith.

All odds are accurate as of timestamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.


College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

8-seed Ohio State vs. 5-seed Texas
Friday, Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Spread: Ohio State (-6)
Money line: Ohio State (-215), Texas (+180)
Over/under: 53.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
First-half spread: Ohio State -3.5 (Even), Texas +3.5 (-120)
First-half money line: Ohio State (-190), Texas (+150)
First-half total points: 26.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Ohio State total points: 29.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Texas total points: 23.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Matchup predictor (by ESPN Analytics): Texas by 0.2 (50.5% chance to win)

The Buckeyes are gearing up to take down the Longhorns, with Jeremiah Smith poised to be the star of the show. At just 19 years old, the freshman wide receiver has turned heads and shattered records, emerging as a potential game changer in this highly anticipated showdown. Smith’s journey from promising recruit to collegiate superstar has been nothing short of extraordinary.

Smith’s freshman season has been a master class in dominance. With 70 receptions, 1,224 yards and 14 touchdowns, he has redefined the possibilities for a first-year player at Ohio State, breaking multiple freshman records along the way. His Rose Bowl heroics against Oregon — seven catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns — cemented his status as a rising star. These aren’t merely impressive stats for a freshman; they’re elite by any measure, elevating Smith to the realm of college football’s top receivers.

What makes Smith truly special is his NFL-ready skill set. Standing at 6-foot-3 with a blend of size, speed and strength that’s rare even among seasoned players, Smith plays with a maturity and polish that belies his age. His precision in route running, ability to create separation and penchant for contested catches make him a nightmare matchup for any defense.

Smith’s presence looms large for a Texas secondary that has been exposed in key moments this season. The Longhorns, who surrendered 336 passing yards to Clemson and 99 receiving yards to Arizona State’s RB Cam Skattebo will have their hands full trying to contain Smith. Cornerback Malik Muhammad, in particular, struggled against Clemson and could find himself in a similar predicament if matched up against Ohio State’s No. 1 receiver.

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Smith’s brilliance doesn’t exist in isolation. Ohio State’s roster is loaded with seasoned veterans, including several fourth and fifth-year seniors, such as WR Emeka Egbuka — an essential part of the wide receiver group — and RB TreVeyon Henderson, known for his explosive play and abilities as a receiving back. Together, this offensive unit brings invaluable experience and poise to high-pressure games. Their leadership not only steadies the team but also amplifies Smith’s impact, providing the perfect environment for him to thrive. This cohesion is critical against a Texas team known for faltering in the second half, particularly under the strain of relentless offensive pressure.

The Buckeyes’ ability to capitalize on Texas’ weaknesses in pass coverage and their inconsistent pass rush further tilts the scales in Ohio State’s favor. Quarterback Will Howard, equipped with a quick release and a sharp football IQ, will likely target Smith early and often, exploiting mismatches in the Longhorns’ secondary. As Denzel Burke, Ohio State’s veteran cornerback, aptly noted, “He’ll probably be the best receiver to come through here. He’s already on that verge.” Such praise underscores the magnitude of Smith’s talent and the impact he’s poised to make.

When you play Ohio State, there’s no room for error, and with Texas grappling with the risk of Quinn Ewers‘ interceptions and a ground game that lacks the ability to punish defenses, perfection is a must. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, it’s a level of play we haven’t seen from them this season — and won’t see in this matchup.

Another way to attack this game is to take Ohio State in a money line rollover parlay, which offers better value than the current futures market price. At -225 against Texas and an estimated -280 in the national championship, the rollover yields -110 odds, significantly better than the -145 futures price, making it a sharper play if you trust Ohio State to win both games.

Pick: Ohio State (-6)