The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers will square off in a decisive Game 5 this evening. Tipoff is slated for 7 p.m. CT at Madison Square Garden.
The winner of this evening’s matchup could ultimately advance to the Eastern Conference Finals with the series knotted at two apiece right now. That’s good news for the Knicks, as the home team has won every game so far this series.
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New York jumped out to a 2-0 series lead, earning a 121-117 victory in Game 1 and a 130-121 win in Game 2. The Pacers responded with home wins in Game 3 (111-106) and Game 4 (121-89) and now have all the momentum.
Oddsmakers are giving the edge to the Knicks, listing them as 1.5-point favorites with an over/under of 217.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
Time/TV: 7 p.m. CT (TNT)
Spread (from FanDuel Sportsbook): Knicks -1.5
Total: 217
Moneyline: Knicks -116, Pacers -102
Analysis: I expect the Knicks to win tonight, meaning their moneyline price is worth a look ahead of tipoff. Caesars offers the best price at -115, though bettors can get -110 odds by laying -1. But all these games have been competitive, and there are better edges to be found.
For example, Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith is being discounted by the betting market ahead of Game 5 — or at least at BetMGM, where it costs -130 to bet over 9.5 points for Smith. Most other sportsbooks have moved his scoring prop up to 10.5.
Nesmith has scored in double figures in two of the four games this series, averaging nine points per contest. More importantly, his usage has remained steady, averaging 6.8 field goal attempts and 31.8 minutes per game.
Nesmith has scored at least 10 points in 61% of his games this year and 60% of his previous 10 matchups. He has done so eight times in his last 10 outings against the Knicks.
I am jumping on this over at -140 or better on 9.5 points given his projection of 11.9 points. There is a real chance this line is gone by tipoff.
Prediction: Knicks 115, Pacers 112 (Over 217)
Best bet: Aaron Nesmith OVER 9.5 points (-130 via BetMGM)