Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (right) is the favorite to win the 2024 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico … [+]
Preakness Betting Preview And Picks On Biggest Stakes Races
The second-jewel of the Triple Crown comes up a bit soft and short for the second straight year. Eight stakes races Saturday are headlined by the $2 million Grade 1 Preakness Stakes. Expert picks and horse racing insight is provided for the biggest day of horse racing at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore on Saturday, May 18.
Early race favorite Muth (fever) is now scratched as of Wednesday. The 149th running of the Preakness Stakes has just eight runners with Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan the new favorite on parimutuel odds.
Fans can tune in on NBC or watch on the NBC Sports app. Check out the Preakness odds and stream the Preakness and other races from around the country on TVG – a leading wagering website & horse racing network powered by FanDuel Racing.
How To Bet On Preakness Stakes Day Races
NBC’s coverage of the Preakness Stakes is from 4:30 – 7:30 p.m. ET. The Preakness Stakes is Race 13 with post time at 7:01 p.m., and CNBC carries many of the earlier stakes races at Pimlico Saturday from 1:30-4:30 p.m. and streamed on Peacock. Also, Friday’s coverage of the 100th Black-Eyed Susan Stakes for 3-year-0ld fillies is on Peacock from 4:30-6 p.m. ET.
Preakness Day Expert Picks
FanDuel Racing provides promotions, tips and added content for horse racing and the Preakness Stakes to help guide you to the winners circle. I also turned to the experts at Horse Racing Nation (HRN) and it’s Super Screener big stakes race analysis for more insight and complete racing coverage. Horse Racing Nation provides racing previews, picks and insight, and the HRN Super Screener features race analysis and wagering recommendations for key graded stakes.
All horses listed below are the HRN’s top win contenders with opening parimutuel odds subject to change and adjusting as more bets come in on the races.
Preakness Stakes (Race 13)
- #8 Tuscan Gold (8/1) Top Value
- #3 Catching Freedom (6/1) Top Board Hitter)
- #5 Mystik Dan (8/5)
These three win contenders are also FanDuel Racing best bets with jockey Tyler Gaffalione riding Tuscan Gold for trainer Chad Brown, who has won the Preakness twice since 2017 with horses he held out of the Kentucky Derby, like Tuscan Gold. The lightly-raced 3-year-old by super sire Medaglia d’Oro makes his second stakes start and fourth race overall after finishing 3rd in the Louisiana Derby.
Tuscan Gold becomes the lone ‘A’ horse in the race with a better pace set up, according to Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener. He was the only forwardly placed type that survived the demanding pace in the Louisiana Derby won by the pace-advantaged Catching Freedom. Like that rival, he owns the 1 3/16 miles distance experience. Tuscan Gold offers great value, while the Top Long Shot is Imagination (6/1) for 8-time Preakness winning trainer Bob Baffert, who loses Muth but has Imagination. Also, #2 Uncle Heavy (20/1) scores out best via the proprietary long shot algorithm followed by #1 Mugatu (20/1). Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener says the two longhots are worth including at the bottom of Trifecta and Superfecta wagers to help with the payoffs.
Preakness Stakes entrant Tuscan Gold works out ahead of the 149th running of the Preakness Stakes … [+]
Tuscan Gold has kept improving from his stamina-rich breeding since finishing 4th in his debut last November behind the winner, Sierra Leone (2nd in Kentucky Derby). From there he just kept moving forward while facing tougher and going longer. His 3rd place effort in one of the top prep races, the Louisiana Derby, was sneaky good. He pressed a very fast pace while wide throughout and just when you thought he was done, he dug in turning for home and continued on best of any of the horses that were forwardly placed. Though he lost to Catching Freedom, who finished 4th in the Kentucky Derby, you could argue he ran just as good of a race if not better as he went against the race flow. The break since has had to have done him some good especially being so lightly raced. Trainer Chad Brown has used the Derby prep-to-Preakness move successfully before with Cloud Computing and Early Voting. Trip wise, he figures to enjoy an ideal pressing trip one length off the pace leader, Imagination. Owns an excellent shot to win this while offering more value than Mystik Dan. With Muth outs moves up to the top pick.
Only 23 horses in history have won both of the first two legs, the most recent being Justify in 2018. Will Mystik Dan be next?
Mystik Dan was the narrow winner of the Kentucky Derby benefiting from a perfect ground-saving rail trip looks to keep his chances alive for a Triple Crown bid by coming back two weeks later to face a pretty strong Preakness field. Horses exiting the Derby with a top half finish have traditionally performed well in this race though it has been more challenging over the past four years as connections of lightly raced, new shooters have opted to pass the Kentucky Derby and point these quality, fresh colts to take down the Preakness. The lower score earned by Mystik Dan is due to the fact that he does not show any triple-digit figures anywhere in his last two running lines and he misses on the necessary 95+ 2nd call pace figure criteria that has only been missed once by a Preakness winner over the past 25+ years and that was 2021 winner Rombauer whose running lines coming into the Preakness, frankly, look similar to that of Mystik Dan’s. With a slower pace, he projects to be positioned about 3 lengths back in the early going and will be all in to chase down Tuscan Gold and Imagination. Will be used defensively in the wagering. Offer no value.
Catching Freedom was the Super Screener Top Win and Top Value pick for the Kentucky Derby finished a closing 4th and seeks to improve upon that finish with a go in the Preakness. He appears to have recovered well off his Derby effort with that 6-week break between the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby helping him now. He is the only horse in the field exiting two “A” rated races. He will be near the back with Mugatu but turning for home he’ll be one of the swiftest movers down the stretch. Of the horses exiting the Kentucky Derby he rates as the highest finisher here turning the tables on Mystik Dan. For a race that requires not being too far off the pace as runners get to the 6 furlongs mark, that will work against Catching Freedom and it is the primary reason he ranks behind Tuscan Gold. With the pace being projected to come up on the softer side with the scratch of Muth, he’ll need to deploy his decent turn of foot to overcome the pace disadvantage. However, this is one of the most reliable board hitters in the race and the best of the closers.
Additional racing picks and analysis for the Preakness from the Horse Racing Nation Super Screener and contributors.
Gallorette Stakes (G3) Race 7 – 1 1/16 miles on turf
- #6 Five Towns (6/1) Top Value
- #3 Blissful (7/2)
Maryland Sprint (G3) Race 8 – 6 furlongs)
- #7 Bourbon Bash (6/1) Top Value
- #6 Prince of Jericho (7/2)
James W. Murphy Race 9 – 1 mile on turf (high payoff potential)
- #5 Speedyness (10/1) Top Value
- #3 Massif (20/1)
- #12 Fulmineo (9/1)
Sir Barton Stakes Race 10 – 1 1/16 miles
- #8 Tuscan Sky (5/2)
- #5 Corporate Power (9/5)
- #10 Imperial Gun (7/2)
Jim McKay Turf Sprint Race 11 – 5 furlongs on turf (high payoff potential)
- #11 Witty (9/2)
- #1 Grooms All Business (8/1)
- #9 Grooms All Business (15/1)
Dinner Party Stakes (G2) Race 12 at 1 1/16 miles on turf)
- #9 Beatbox (5/1) )
- #5 Running B (9/1)
- #10 Emmanuel (5/2)
In addition, Friday’s race schedule at Pimlico includes six stakes headlined by Race 13 at 5:44 p.m. ET and the $300,000 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. Four of the eight entries have odds between 5/2 and 9/2 in a more competitive field.
Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, Friday (Race 13)
- #7 Corposo (5/2)
- #5 Gun Song (9/2)
Higher payoff potential in Friday’s Race 10 and the $150,000 Miss Preakness Stakes (G3) with 12 entries.
- #4 Launch (9/2)
- #7 Carmelina (12/1)
- #3 Youalmosthadme (2/1)
Mystik Dan is now the favorite to win the Preakness, but it doesn’t appear he’s the best horse in the field and he’s now 8/5 after winning the Kentucky Derby at 18/1 odds. However, if Mystik Dan wins, horse racing will benefit with more media coverage and spotlight on the Sport of Kings with a potential Triple Crown winner entering the June 8 Belmont Stakes.
You can bet on it.