Boxing expert Chris Oliver was in profit for 2024. In his first preview of the new year, he looks at a potentially spicy British encounter.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday January 11
2pts Callum Simpson to win by decision 6/4 (Ladbrokes, Coral, Star Sports)
1pt Caroline Dubois to win by decision 11/4 (Sky Bet)
There are plenty of high-profile shows already in the calendar for the early part of 2025, but televised boxing on these shores starts with a good old-fashioned British title scrap on Saturday night.
The Commonwealth super middleweight belt is also on the line as CALLUM SIMPSON takes on Steed Woodall at Sheffield’s Park Community Arena, live on Sky Sports.
Simpson (15-0) is a warm 1/6 favourite to successfully defend the belts he took from Zak Chelli via unanimous decision in the summer. In front of a vociferous crowd at Oakwell Stadium, Barnsley native Simpson delighted the locals with a fast start, but Chelli weathered the storm and scrappy 12-rounder ensued.
Ultimately, Chelli couldn’t cope with the skills and physicality of the challenger, and Simpson ran out a clear winner on all three scorecards.
For his first defence, Woodall (19-2-1) is an interesting opponent. The Birmingham man began his career as a middleweight in America and was stopped by Steve Rolls in 2015 but has looked much better since stepping up to 168lb and returning to the UK more recently.
After just falling short on the scorecards in a barn-burner with the then-unbeaten Padraig McCory in Belfast in August 2023, he returned from 10 months off to upset the previously unbeaten Lerrone Richards by stoppage last June.
Constantly on the front foot, Woodall was edging closer to the awkward Richards with each round and walked the favourite on to a huge right hand in the sixth round, before dropping his stunned opponent with the fight-ending combination.
That victory set up the all-action Woodall for a shot at these belts and while he is a 6/1 outsider, he will be no pushover if he’s in the same sort of form this weekend.
Simpson is entitled to improve again after prevailing in his first 12-rounder and picking up two prestigious belts, but Woodall will also be full of confidence after looking better than ever last time out. He was also a huge outsider that night, so won’t be fazed by being the underdog again here.
They have a common recent foe in Boris Crighton, who was easily outpointed by Simpson in July 2023, just three months after he lost a very close decision to Woodall, and it is hard to go against Simpson this weekend. He has momentum and the physical advantages, but he may be made to work much harder for victory than the odds suggest.
The challenger has looked much more durable as a super middleweight and never looked in serious trouble despite taking plenty of bombs from McCory. Simpson developed a reputation as a puncher by stopping nine of his first 11 victims, and he is generally slight odds-on for another inside-the-distance victory here.
However, three of Simpson’s last four contests have gone to the scorecards and the better value looks be a points success for Simpson, who hasn’t been as destructive as he has stepped up in class.
Simpson is dangerous early, and Woodall likes to get on with things, so the opening few rounds could be lively. However, this could play out similar to the Chelli fight if the challenger can get through that initial period.
Simpson is big for the weight and makes use of his long levers with a good jab, which he has utilised well of late and that could be his route to victory again. The champion will look to start fast again but may have to revert to his boxing to get past the durable and non-stop challenger. I like SIMPSON TO WIN BY DECISION at 6/4.
Sweet Caroline
CAROLINE DUBOIS was a winner on the undercard at Oakwell last summer and is once again the co-main event with Simpson as she defends the WBC lightweight belt for the first time against Jessica Camara.
Like her brother, Daniel, she was awarded her world title outside the ring and whereas her sibling had to upset the odds to keep the belt against Anthony Joshua, Caroline is a red-hot 1/20 favourite to retain her new strap with a victory.
Having gone to the Olympics as a 20-year-old in 2021, Dubois has been hot property since and made it 10 straight wins as a professional with another wide decision victory over Maira Moneo in Yorkshire last time out. She stopped her first six opponents but has had to go distance on her last four outings as the level of opposition has gone up, so it is interesting that she is a best price of 4/9 to get the victory before the final bell here.
An 18/1 chance, Camara (14-4) has been stopped twice before and clearly her fourth-round TKO defeat to Karla Ramos Zamora is a concern, but the latter went the distance with the highly-regarded Beatriz Ferreira next time out.
Camara has won four on the bounce since, including going to South Korea and ending Hyun Mi Choi’s unbeaten record via split decision, while her victory over Heather Hardy in 2021 also shows that she is very capable on her day.
Dubois is an exciting talent and should prove too good for the Canadian, but whether that is by stoppage or not is less certain, in my opinion. In contrast to her gung-ho approach early in her professional career, ‘Sweet Caroline’ has been taking her time more recently and is a more rounded fighter now. Add that to the fact that Camara has fought as high as welterweight in the past and the case for her lasting the distance begins to make more appeal.
Dubois is going places and is fully expected to add win number 11 to her CV, but it could be worth chancing that it comes by decision as Sky Bet’s price boost of 11/4 for that outcome looks a bit too big to pass up. There’s plenty of 5/2 and some 27/10 around, too.
Posted at 1500 GMT on 10/01/25
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