Aug 23, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) warms up on the field before the game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
- Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite in the Steelers vs Falcons odds on Sunday, September 8th
- Kirk Cousins will make his Falcons debut after coming over from Minnesota in free agency
- Check out the Steelers vs Falcons picks, predictions and props to target below
The Kirk Cousins era in Atlanta begins Sunday, as the Falcons host the Steelers. Cousins hasn’t seen live game reps since tearing his Achilles last October, but that hasn’t stopped online sportsbooks from giving his new team the edge in Week 1.
Best Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons Odds
Atlanta is listed as a 3.5-point favorite in the latest NFL odds, up a full point from the opening line back in May. The game currently boasts a 42-point total, which has been bet down a point from its opener.
As we’ll discuss, there’s plenty of reasons to expect this game to underwhelm offensively, so keep reading for our favorite Steelers vs Falcons picks, predictions and props to target below.
Steelers vs Falcons Predictions
- Under 42 (-110) at bet365
The list of quarterbacks who’ve resumed playing at a high level following an Achilles tear is extremely small. Bettors should expect Cousins to be rusty. He didn’t take a single snap in the preseason, and he’ll be playing in a new offensive system.
His mobility could also be reduced, which is a huge problem versus this vaunted Pittsburgh defense. That unit is headlined by DPOY contender T.J. Watt, and finished top-11 in the NFL last season in sack percentage and pressure rate.
The Steelers’ back end is incredibly strong as well, thanks to All-Pro Minkah Fitzpatrick and emerging star Joey Porter Jr., which suggests success through the air could be hard to come by for Cousins.
On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh also has a new look under center. Russell Wilson was slated to start the season opener, but has been downgraded due to a calf injury. His status may not be known until game time, which opens the door for Justin Fields to take the reigns.
Individual period today featured Steelers QB Justin Fields throwing the ball and Russell Wilson, who was limited with calf tightness yesterday, watching on. pic.twitter.com/OhSUT73VTP
— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) September 6, 2024
Fields is fresh off a disappointing preseason, where he fumbled five times, took four sacks and didn’t account for a single touchdown. He graded out lower than teammates Wilson and Kyle Allen according to Pro Football Focus, and he’ll have to deal with a Falcons defense that got some help recently.
Pass rush specialist Matthew Judon comes over from New England, joining a defensive line that ranked fourth among NFC teams in pressure rate a season ago.
Offensive concerns for both teams are enough to lean under in this contest, but the NFL over under trends support that side as well. Since 2014, the under is 55-25 when Pittsburgh is a road underdog. Diving even deeper, we discover Mike Tomlin-led teams are 42-13-1 (76%) to the under, in road games where the total opened 43 or higher in the first three months of the season.
Pittsburgh vs Atlanta Props
- Tyler Allgeier Under 7.5 Rush Attempts (-120) at DraftKings
With Cousins adjusting to a repaired Achilles and a new offense, Atlanta would be wise to lean on the run. After all, Pittsburgh was a bottom-13 rush defense a season ago. However, a run-heavy approach doesn’t signal a monster workload for Tyler Allgeier.
The third-year RB stole plenty of touches from top-10 pick Bijan Robinson last season, but we shouldn’t expect that to continue. The Falcons are on record saying they want to feature Robinson early and often, and that fits into what new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is used to.
He hails from a Rams team that loved to showcase a single running back. Last year, Kyren Williams out-touched everyone in the LA backfield by 151 carries. The season before, Cam Akers had 118 more attempts than any other Rams back. Expect Allgeier to be sprinkled in, but not nearly enough to exceed his rush attempts total in the NFL props.
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As SBD’s resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he’d rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.