Noah Lyles is one of the best athletes in the world and the reigning world champion in the 100 and 200 meters. However, expectations for the American might be too high at the Paris Olympics.

At online sportsbooks, Lyles is a better than 4/1 favorite in the 200 meters (his best race) and a slight underdog or about even money in the 100 meters. Jamaican Kishane Thompson, who ran 9.77 seconds earlier this summer, is the favorite in the 100m. 

Lyles’ personal bests are 19.31 seconds in the 200m, the American record he set in 2022, and 9.81 seconds in the 100m, which he ran earlier this month ahead of the Olympics.

The odds for Lyles to win gold in each event are reasonable, as he hasn’t lost a 200m race in several years and Thompson has been faster recently in the 100m.

It’s a different wager that’s outlandish.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, you can bet on Lyles to set a world record in “either the 100m or 200m.” The price offered is +380—terrible odds if you follow track and field.

Lyles Has No Shot at Bolt’s WR in the 100m

Let’s first consider the chances of Lyles breaking Usain Bolt’s 100m record of 9.58 seconds, set in 2009 at the World Athletics Championships in Berlin.

Lyles hasn’t yet broken the 9.80-second barrier, so the chances of him skipping the 9.70s and 9.60s to run faster than Bolt is virtually impossible at the Paris Olympics.

I’d go as far to say the chances of Lyles ever breaking 9.58 seconds in the 100m are no better than the odds of filling out a perfect March Madness bracket. It just isn’t happening.

In fact, no one in the world competing today, including Kishane Thompson, has a realistic chance of breaking Bolt’s 100m record. 

It’s reasonable to imagine that Bolt’s 100m record will stand for many more years because of the margin by which he broke the previous all-time mark. Prior to Bolt, the 100m world record had been lowered each time by hundredths of a second since the 1960s, sometimes only by 0.01 seconds. 

Bolt, on the other hand, smashed the previous 100m world record, lowering it by 0.16 seconds over the previous record holder. Records are made to be broken, but this one will stand for a long time.

Could Lyles Really Break Bolt’s 200m WR?

I’ve explained why FanDuel’s wager is, in reality, whether Lyles will break the 200m world record at the Paris Olympics at +380 odds.

Those odds carry an implied probability of about 20%. Is that a fair price here?

To be fair, Lyles is probably the only 200m sprinter competing today who currently has any hope of approaching Bolt’s 200m record of 19.19 seconds, set in 2009 at the same event he set the 100m world record. Maybe Letsile Tebogo also does in the future, but right now it’s only Lyles.

Lyles’ 19.31 seconds from 2022 makes him the third-fastest man in history over the half-lap distance, trailing just Bolt and Yohan Blake, who ran 19.26 seconds in 2011.

However, the 27-year-old Lyles hasn’t come close to running faster since he broke Michael Johnson’s American record.

Lyles’ second-best 200m performance was 19.46 seconds, also from 2022. His fastest time in 2024 so far was 19.53 seconds, which he ran at the Olympic Trials in June.

It’s possible Lyles has peaked, but there’s still a good chance he breaks 19.30 seconds in the 200m before his career ends. Will his new personal best come in Paris? Unlikely, but possible.

Still, he’s far from Bolt’s 19.19 seconds, so it’s hard to imagine Lyles skipping over the 19.20s to run in the 19.10s.

Anything is possible, and Lyles is a historic sprinter. But paying +380 on him passing Bolt in Paris is a terrible price and should not be bet. Unless you don’t like money.

Would I take this bet at +3800? Still no.

Would I take this bet at +38000? Sure, I’d take a flier on it.

Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images