Home » Today’s best FanDuel Dinger Tuesday MLB home run picks (June 18)

Today’s best FanDuel Dinger Tuesday MLB home run picks (June 18)

Today’s best FanDuel Dinger Tuesday MLB home run picks (June 18)

FanDuel makes Tuesdays exciting via a promotion called “Dinger Tuesday,” which promotes the most fun thing to do when betting on the MLB: Bet on dingers.

Here’s how the promo works: you receive a $5 bonus bet (up to $25) for every home run hit in the game featuring the player you’re backing to hit a home run.

For example, one of my favorite picks today is Will Smith in the Dodgers-Rockies game. If there are four home runs hit in that game — regardless of who hits them — you would receive $20 in bonus bets in your FanDuel account. The max you can get per game is $25, but you can bet on as many games as you’d like.

It’s a fun promo, so let’s get right into the best ways to attack it on Tuesday, June 18th.

Dinger Tuesday Play 1: Will Smith to Hit a Home Run (+320) FanDuel

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies, 8:40PM ET

With this game being played at Coors Field it is a great game from a ballpark perspective, and we also get a very mashable pitcher on the mound as well. As for the weather, with the elevation in Colorado the carry is always going to be better than average, and this game is no different — plus the winds are blowing out to left field as well. Austin Gomber is pitching for the Rockies, and he is definitely a pitcher that you want to target for batter home run props.

He has the 5th-worst HR/9 in the MLB at 1.55, while allowing a barrel rate of 9.9% (the 11th-highest in the MLB), an average exit velocity of 89.4MPH (the 27th-highest in the MLB), and a pull-rate of 44.1% (the 16th-highest in the MLB) and his hard hit rate allowed on batted balls is 32%, which would be the 23rd-highest in baseball.

As for Will Smith, the Dodgers catcher is significantly better against left-handed pitching than righties, and Gomber is, you guessed it, a lefty. On the season Smiths ISO rate against lefties is all the way up to .317, which would be the 3rd-highest ISO rate in the MLB if you just extrapolated that out for all qualified batters. His fly-ball rate against lefties is 50%, which would be the seventh-highest fly-ball rate in the MLB, and his hard hit rate is 42.6%, which would be the eighth-highest in the MLB.

He has admittedly slumped a little bit in the month of June, but he was second in the batting order yesterday and had two hard hits with an average launch angle of 32 degrees (the sweet spot for launch angle on home runs is between 25-35 degrees), showing that he was aiming to put the ball in the air and was swinging hard, so hopefully that continues tonight.

Dinger Tuesday Play 2: Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+430) FanDuel

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins, 7:40PM ET

All eyes are going to be on Royce Lewis in this game, but we are instead going to ride with Larnach, who has been the designated hitter for the Twins over the last couple games. Larnach is the type of batter that you only want to back when he is facing right-handed pitching, which is what he is going up against tonight in Aaron Civale of the Rays.

On the year, Larnach has hit seven home runs, and all seven have come against RHP. Additionally, Larnach is also much better at home, with five of his homers coming in Minnesota, along with a .233 ISO. Larnach had a stretch at the end of May/early June where he hit three home runs in four games, then he went on a cold spell before breaking out of that with a home run in his last game this past Sunday.

As for the pitching matchup, Aaron Civale has the second-worst HR/9 in the MLB at 1.73, and is even worse against left-handed hitters, albeit slightly, with a HR/9 of 1.78 against. Against lefties his fly-ball rate allowed is 42.7% (18th-highest in MLB), pull-rate allowed is 44.9% (13th-highest in MLB) and hard hit rate allowed is 38.2% (2nd-highest in MLB). This should be a matchup that heavily favors Larnach, so hopefully he comes through with a dinger.

Dinger Tuesday Play 3: Trea Turner to Hit a Home Run (+450) FanDuel

San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6:40PM ET

The Phillies shortstop made his return from a six-week hamstring injury yesterday and hit the ball pretty well, so we feel good about targeting him tonight. While not being played at Coors Field, this is another good game from a weather perspective for home runs at Citizens Bank Park, with it being very hot and humid in Philly with 10MPH winds blowing out.

In his return yesterday Turner went right back to second in the batting order for the Phillies, and he had two hard hits with an average launch angle of 27.3 degrees, similar to Will Smith in that he was aiming to put the ball in the air with some pop. Prior to his injury Turner was hitting the ball well with a .375 wOBA and 144 wRC+, which would be the 13th-highest wOBA and 15th-best wRC+ in the MLB of all qualified batters.

Admittedly, his power had not quite been there before the injury, with only two home runs on the year, but both of those home runs came against right-handed pitching, which is what he is facing tonight in Michael King of the Padres. King is generally not a great pitcher when it comes to the home run department either, as he has a HR/9 of 1.41, tenth-worst in the MLB, but he is also worse against right-handed hitters. His allowed fly-ball rate, pull-rate, and hard hit rate are all higher against righties.

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