The 2024 UEFA European Championship kicks off Friday afternoon at the Allianz Arena in Munich. The tournament host, Germany, gets the festivities underway against Scotland. Die Mannschaft is one of five teams with shorter than 10/1 odds to win Euro 2024.
These favorites (England, France, Germany, Portugal and Spain) have little value on the futures market. Each country has an implied probability greater than 10% to win Euro 2024, so we’ve found a favorite future play from the “other” field of 19 teams. We’ve also identified a realistic value play to win the Golden Boot.
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2024 UEFA European Championship future bets
Golden Boot winners often come from countries that make deep runs in major tournaments. The 2022 World Cup saw all four top scorers (Kylian Mbappe, Lionel Messi, Julian Alvarez and Olivier Giroud) play in the final, which is why my favorite Golden Boot future plays for my predicted winner.
Let’s discuss those selections:
All listed odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday, June 11, 2024.
Euro 2024 winner pick: Netherlands (+1600)
The last time we saw the Netherlands on the international stage, they were bowing out of the 2022 World Cup during the quarterfinals. They gave the eventual winner, Argentina, everything they had for 120 minutes before dropping the match 4-3 on penalties.
This run showed that the Oranje had successfully rebuilt with a healthy mix of veteran and youth talent following their failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. The young talent — such as Jeremie Frimpong and Xavi Simons — has only gained more experience in Europe heading into this tournament.
The Dutch roster is filled with stars, so much so that picking a starting XI feels nearly impossible. This will be the job of former Barcelona manager Ronald Koeman, who returned to lead the side again after qualifying for Euro 2020 during his first stint in charge.
The Netherlands has been in excellent form since Koeman’s arrival in January 2023. The Oranje have compiled an 8-4 record across 12 matches with the four losses coming to Croatia (in extra time), Italy, France and Germany. Their two most recent games saw them demolish Canada and Iceland each by four goals. Suffice it to say Koeman’s men are ready to kick off the Euros.
The Dutch are expected to finish second in Group D, which consists of Austria, France and Poland, by oddsmakers. This would see them face the runner-up from Group E (Belgium, Romania, Slovakia and Ukraine) in the Round of 16. In all likelihood, this means avoiding a European powerhouse — or a team with shorter than 10/1 odds to win the Euros — until the quarterfinals.
If the group stages play out as I expect, the Netherlands will face a beatable Portugal team in the quarterfinals. From there, this team has enough talent to go toe-to-toe with anyone in the competition in a one-off contest.
The Oranje check all of the boxes necessary to make a “Cinderella” run in this tournament. They have the coaching, form, luck of the draw and the talent necessary to win Euro 2024. I’m backing the Dutch to win at 16/1, which I view as the best realistic value on the board.
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Euro 2024 Golden Boot winner pick: Cody Gakpo (+3500)
As I stated previously, Golden Boot winners often come from teams that make deep runs, and I believe the Netherlands will go far.
Cody Gakpo hasn’t scored for his country since November and he hasn’t been in the finest goalscoring form in general. He had 16 goals in 53 matches across all competitions for Liverpool this season. Thus, his odds have reached long-shot status (35/1) heading into the 2024 Euros.
I love this price considering his knack for finding the back of the net in the last major international tournament he appeared in.
Gakpo finished the 2022 World Cup as the joint-fourth-highest scorer with four goals in five games. He scored in three consecutive matches in the group stage against Senegal, Ecuador and Qatar respectively, all as a 23-year-old.
The Liverpool star’s versatility and positional flexibility make him a shoo-in for any of Koeman’s starting XIs. He tends to pop up with goals under the brightest lights for his national team and with the Dutch poised to go far in Euro 2024, Gakpo is worth a flier at +3500. The Netherlands’ left winger has a legitimate chance to top the scoring charts when all of the dust settles in Germany.