The 2024 UEFA European Championship continues Thursday afternoon with Spain and Italy in a pivotal Group B contest. Each team is already on three points, so if the match has a winner, that country will sit alone atop the standings with one match left to play before the knockout rounds.
Veltins-Arena in Gelsenkirchen, Germany plays host to this massive matchup. Kickoff is slated for 2 p.m. CT (9 p.m. CET) on Thursday. Fox will have nationwide coverage in the United States. Let’s break down the odds.
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2024 UEFA European Championship preview: Spain vs. Italy odds, prediction, best bet
Spain put on one of the more complete performances in the first round of contests as it dispatched Croatia 3-0. La Roja took the most of their chances with three different goalscorers (Alvaro Morata, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Carvajal) finding the net from just five shots on target. The clinical display justified the Spaniards’ spot among the favorites with little doubt they’ll remain in form.
Italy showed resiliency in matchday one as it came from behind and eventually held on against a tricky Albania side, 2-1. Gli Azzurri got goals from Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella as they look to build confidence in the final third ahead of their toughest test yet. It’ll need to be all hands on deck from Luciano Spalletti’s side as they look to take their unbeaten run to eight games.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends ahead of this highly anticipated UEFA European Championship clash:
Spain vs. Italy
Time/TV: Thursday, June 20 at 2 p.m. CT (Fox)
Location: Veltins-Arena in Gelsenkirchen, Germany
Moneyline: Spain +115 | Draw +220 | Italy +270
Analysis: Albania and Croatia’s draw on Wednesday ensures that the winner of this contest will clinch their spot in the knockout stages. If the reigning European champions and one of the tournament favorites needed any more motivation in this monumental meeting, they’ve found it.
The overarching theme of this tournament so far has been goals. There hasn’t been a 0-0 draw through 15 games and five teams have managed 3+ goals in a single match. Spain was one of those teams as it put three goals past the reigning third-place finisher at the 2022 World Cup.
The goalscoring prowess in La Roja’s ranks is the biggest difference between these sides. Luis de la Fuente’s side has managed to score three or more goals in eight of their last 11 fixtures dating back to September 2023. Spain has proven goalscorers — such as Alvaro Morata — and that’s the major advantage it has over its matchday two opponent.
For all of the talent among Italy’s ranks, Spalletti doesn’t have a consistent scoring threat. Gli Azzurri’s goals against Albania came from a centerback and a holding midfielder, which simply isn’t a sustainable winning formula.
Barella is the roster’s lone player with 10 or more goals in his international career. None of the forwards have more than seven goals to their names. The front line against Albania — Federico Chiesa, Lorenzo Pellegrini and Gianluca Scamacca — has combined to score just 14 goals in 96 appearances.
Chiesa and Co. create enough chances to get by each game, but can the Italians keep pace with one of Europe’s elite attacks? You’d be forgiven for wondering where the goals come from in big games. As much as Italy will frustrate Spain with its stubborn defense, de la Fuente’s men almost always find a way to rattle the back of the net a couple of times.
Prediction: Spain 2-0 Italy
Best bet: Spain moneyline (+115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)