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UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

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UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

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October 4, 2024February 12, 2023
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

This weekend, the UFC is returning to Salt Lake City for the first time since July 2023 with UFC 307 — and what a return it’s making.

On top of a UFC Light Heavyweight Championship match between current champ Alex Pereira and Khalil Rountree Jr., the night will also feature a UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship match between current champion Raquel Pennington and Julianna Peña.

While Pereira vs. Rountree is a title fight, oddsmakers aren’t expecting it to be particularly close. Pereira enters the bout as a -500 moneyline favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pennington’s fight against Peña is projected to be tighter, as Pennington only has -170 odds on the moneyline.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what you need to know about Saturday’s fight card.

Alex Pereira (11-2-0, 9 KO)

The current Light Heavyweight belt holder, Pereira is in the midst of one of the best runs in UFC history.

After becoming a two-division champion in November 2023 with a knockout of Jiří Procházka, he headlined UFC 300 and UFC 303, where he also tallied wins via knockout. His most impressive win came at 303, when he faced off against Procházka again and knocked him out in the second round of a fight where he filled in for the injured Conor McGregor.

A former kickboxer, Pereira signed with UFC in 2021 and moved to the Light Heavyweight division in 2023.

This will be Pereira’s third defense of his Light Heavyweight title, and he shouldn’t have a problem with Rountree. In fact, some UFC fans are wondering if the fight against Rountree is a reward for the 37-year-old’s loyalty, as this will be his fourth fight in nearly a year.

Khalil Rountree Jr. (14-5, 10 KO)

The No. 8 ranked fighter in the Light Heavyweight division, the 34-year-old Rountree has won five fights in a row, four of which came by knockout.

That said, he’s only fought one fighter who is currently in the UFC top 10 – a loss to Johnny Walker.

He will also be fighting for the first time since serving a drug suspension that forced him to withdraw from a fight against Jamahal Hill at UFC 303. He self-reported the violation after a nutritionist advised him to take a supplement that contained an anabolic steroid, which reduced his punishment.

While Rountree isn’t on the level of Magomed Ankalaev (the fighter many thought should be getting the shot against Pereira), he’s one of the sport’s best finishers and has already said that he doesn’t plan on shooting for a takedown.

While that could just be your average pre-fight boasting, he’s never had a takedown in his career and should come out swinging against Pereira.

Pereira vs. Rountree Prediction

This is the first time in the last seven UFC events that a headliner has had odds shorter than -155, and we think that gap will manifest itself in the ring.

While Pereira is at the top of his game and has become one of the best fundamental fighters in the UFC, we think his kickboxing background will help him defeat Rountree’s Muay Thai style.

Rountree is the faster striker, which should lead to some scary moments for Pereira, but we’re banking on the strength in the latter’s punches to make the difference.

Both of these fighters are powerful punchers, so this fight is almost guaranteed to end early. DraftKings has the fight going the distance prop at +550, and we think Pereira will be the one to end it early. Pereira is -5.5 (-400) on the spread, which is another bet we like.

Best Bet: We like Pereira to win on the moneyline (-500), along with Pereira to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-330).

Looking to watch this fight? Check out our UFC streaming page.

UFC 307 Odds

All odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

  • Alex Pereira (-500) vs. Khalil Rountree (+380)
  • Raquel Pennington (-170) vs. Julianna Peña (+142)
  • Mario Bautista (-148) vs. Jose Aldo (+124)
  • Kayla Harrison (-1050) vs. Ketlen Vieira (+675)
  • Kevin Holland (-148) vs. Roman Dolidze (+124)
  • Joaquin Buckley (-225) vs. Stephen Thompson (+185)
  • Iasmin Lucindo (-192) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+160)
  • Alexander Hernandez (-170) vs. Austin Hubbard (+142)
  • Cesar Almeida (-375) vs. Ihor Potieria (+295)
  • Ryan Spann (-245) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (+200)
  • Tecia Pennington (-180) vs. Carla Esparza (+150)
  • Tim Means (-198) vs. Court McGee (+164)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images.