Jul 1, 2014; Salvador, BRAZIL; Belgium forward Romelu Lukaku (9) celebrates his goal in overtime against USA during the round of sixteen match in the 2014 World Cup at Arena Fonte Nova. Belgium defeated USA 2-1 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
- With all four teams in the group tied on three points, Belgium battle the Ukraine on the final day of the group stage at Euro 2024 on Wednesday
- Due to goal differential, Belgium are guaranteed a berth in the round of 16 with a draw while the Ukraine need a win to cement their place in the knockout stage
- See the Ukraine vs Belgium odds, predictions, and best bets for June 26 at MHPArena in Stuttgart
The most-intriguing quartet of the Euro 2024 group stage reaches its conclusion on Wednesday: Romania, Belgium, Slovakia, and the Ukraine are all tied on three points – each with a win and a loss – after two matchdays. Thanks to goal differential, Romania (+1, 3 GF) and Belgium (+1, 2 GF) sit first and second, which means that Belgium only need a tie against the Ukraine (-2, 2 GF) on Wednesday to guarantee a top-two finish in the group and passage to the round of 16. Ukraine is bottom of the group and, as a result, needs a point to have a chance to qualify and a win to clinch a round of 16 berth.
Belgium and the Ukraine will meet at 12:00 pm ET at MHPArena in Stuttgart, while Slovakia vs Romania meet at the same time in Frankfurt. The Ukraine vs Belgium odds favor the Belgians picking up the full three points.
Ukraine vs Belgium Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | +400 | Over 2.5 (-130) |
| Belgium | +300 | Under 2.5 (+105) |
| Draw | -150 | N/A |
Belgium is listed at -150 to win with a Ukraine victory at +400 and the draw at +300. The implied probability of each bet is: 60% for a Belgium win, 20% for a Ukraine victory, and 25% for the draw.
The over/under goal toal is sitting at 2.5 with the over slightly favored at -130 and the under in plus-money at +105. Both of Ukraine’s first two games featured three goals (3-0 loss to Romania, 2-1 win over Slovakia) while both of Belgium’s games have stayed under (1-0 loss to Slovakia, 2-0 win over Romania).
Odds as of June 25. Claim the Fanatics Sportsbook promo code to bet on Euro 2024.
There are injury concerns on both sides, but here is how Ukraine and Belgium project to lineup on Wednesday in Stuttgart.
Ukraine vs Belgium Projected Lineups
| Ukraine | Belgium |
|---|---|
| Anatoliy Trubin (GK) | Koen Casteels (GK) |
| Vitaliy Mykolenko (LB) | Arthur Theate (LB) |
| Mykola Matviienko (CB) | Jan Vertonghen (CB) |
| Ilya Zabarnyi (CB) | Wout Faes (CB) |
| Oleksandr Tymchyk (RB) | Timothy Castagne (RB) |
| Viktor Tsygankov (LMF) | Amadou Onana (LMF) |
| Georgiy Sudakov (CMF) | Youri Tielemans (CMF) |
| Mykola Shaparenko (RMF) | Jeremy Doku (RMF) |
| Mykhailo Mudryk (LW) | Dodi Lukebakio (LW) |
| Andriy Yarmolenko (RW) | Kevin De Bruyne (RW) |
| Artem Dovbyk (STR) | Romelu Lukaku (STR) |
It’s unclear how healthy Jan Vertonghen is on the Belgium side, and veteran Axel Witsel could potentially start on defense if he’s fit, which he wasn’t for the first two games of the tournament.
On the Ukraine side, Vitaliy Mykolenko has missed the first two games due to injury but is expected to be healthy for the must-win group-state finale.
Belgium’s two goals against Romania last time out came from Youri Tielemans in the second minute and Kevin De Bruyne in the 80th. Romelu Lukaku has had three goals disallowed via VAR over the first two matches (two against Slovakia and one against Romania).
After falling behind Slovakia 1-0 in first half on Sunday, Ukraine’s tournament hopes were on life support until Mykola Shaparenko equalized in the 54th minute and sub Roman Yaremchuk potted the winner in the 80th.
Ukraine were somewhat fortunate to escape the Slovakia game with three points. Slovakia controlled more of the possession (54-46%) and generated slightly more xGF (1.43 to 1.27).
Ukraine vs Belgium Prediction
The final round of group-stage games have been considerably lower-scoring than the earlier matches in the tournament. With the stakes extremely high for almost every team in action, there has – generally – been far less push forward and far more defensive discipline.
The first eight third-round games have witnessed just 13 goals in eight matches, or 1.625 goals per game, including two 0-0 draws; the first 12 games featured 27 goals, or 2.25 goals per game (and no scoreless draws).
I expect that to continue on Wednesday, especially so with the more-talented Belgian side only needing a draw to progress.
Ukraine vs Belgium picks:
- Under 2.5 goals (+105)
- Ukraine to score first goal (+180)
Sascha was a hockey player in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He specializes in football, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.