By Sean Bell, military analyst

Russia’s decision to launch an experimental ballistic missile into Ukraine early on Thursday morning has dominated news headlines, but is this really a critical escalation of the Ukraine war?

In his nightly address President Putin claimed that the non-nuclear ballistic missile was targeting Ukrainian defence industry, and that it was launched in response to the West approving the use by Ukraine of long-range weapons onto Russian territory.  

Footage of the strike shows a number of independent streaks of light as multiple projectiles hurtle at high speed to their intended targets, albeit that the resulting explosions appear very limited.

The Russian president claims the experimental missile – the Oreshnik (Hazel Tree) – is a hypersonic Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) which is believed to be based on the older Russian RS26 IRBM.  

The missile has between six to eight independent warheads – either conventional or nuclear – that can be individually targeted, and the missile has a range of around 3,100 miles, which means that the Oreshnik is capable of striking targets across Europe and the East coast of America.  

However, behind this apparently alarming development, it is clear that Russia is simply continuing its alarmist narrative designed to deter the West from continuing its financial and military support for Ukraine.

It is extremely rare for new or experimental military capability to be showcased in front of potential adversaries as such demonstrations provide invaluable data for analysis, which enables vulnerabilities to be identified.  

Furthermore, Russia has very limited supplies of this new missile, so it has very limited military utility in the near term.  So why did Russia conduct this strike at this time?

Most of the data about the Oreshnik capability has been provided by the Russians – specifically the range of this Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile.  

The intended Russian messaging is clear – Europe and the US are within range of modern Russian weapons.  

However, for many decades Russia has fielded thousands of ballistic missiles capable of hitting targets around the globe, so the clear intent of this latest demonstration by President Putin is to intimidate the West – it is not a new capability! 

Russia has consistently sought to deter the West from its support to Ukraine through threats of escalation, but there is no evidence that Russia has any actual appetite for a wider conflict with NATO.

Furthermore, Russia is responsible for the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the destruction of communities and hundreds of thousands of casualties.  

Russia has procured weapons from Iran and North Korea, has exploited dual-use technology for military use from China, and has also fielded North Korean troops in the Ukraine war. 

Therefore, the suggestion that the West has escalated the conflict by providing weapons to Ukraine lacks any credibility.

Of note, the US was provided a warning of the impending ballistic missile launch by the Russians through established nuclear risk reduction channels, which is a clear indication that despite the Russian rhetoric, there is no appetite for any nuclear escalation.