Vasiliy Lomachenko (17-3) and George Kambosos Jr (21-2) will meet on Saturday night for the vacant IBF lightweight title. Lomachenko has been installed as a big betting favorite by sportsbooks over the underdog Kambosos Jr.
Lomachenko is coming off a loss to Devin Haney that was just his second setback since 2014. Meanwhile, Haney is also the only fighter to defeat Kambosos Jr. After back-to-back unanimous decision losses to Haney, Kambosos Jr bounced back with a victory over Maxi Hughes to win the IBO lightweight title.
Lomachenko is a hefty -700 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook but there are many different ways to attack this fight from a betting perspective. Here is how I see the fight unfolding.
Vasiliy Lomachenko vs. George Kambosos Jr odds
Lomachenko -700
Kambosos Jr +475
Draw +2000
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Both of these guys are coming off recent losses to Haney but they were different fights. Kambosos got outclassed in both bouts with Haney, losing two unanimous decisions by a wide margin. Meanwhile, Lomachenko lost a close fight in a decision that was widely disputed. I actually bet Haney in that matchup and thought Lomachenko won the fight.
There’s no question Lomachenko is the superior boxer but the only time I’m laying -700 in a fight is if Conor McGregor faces Floyd Mayweather again. Instead, I’m attacking this fight a different way.
Kambosos may not be as skilled as Lomachenko but he’s tough as nails. Despite getting dominated by Haney, Kambosos was never in real danger of getting knocked out. His last six fights have all gone to the judge’s scorecard.
Lomachenko certainly has the power to knock out anyone with 11 stoppages in 20 fights. However, a lot of those knockouts came earlier in his career. Six of Lomachenko’s last eight fights have ended in a decision.
I expect this to be a long fight and the oddsmakers agree. Lomachenko is -175 to win by decision and the fight going the distance is -275. Total rounds are 10.5 with the over juiced to -400.
Lomachenko’s speed and movement should cause all kinds of problems for Kambosos, similar to his two fights with Haney. I see Lomachenko building a big lead early on points and cruising to a decision win. Kambosos is so tough, the only way I see him losing by stoppage is if he takes too much punishment and the referee ends the fight.
The bet I’m making in this fight is Lomachenko to win by unanimous decision -125. Lomachenko should enter the later rounds with a big lead and won’t need to take any unnecessary risks with much bigger potential payday fights on the horizon.
If you like Lomachenko on Saturday night, laying -125 for him to win by decision is the best value on the board.
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Prediction
Lomachenko to win by unanimous decision -125