A hidden gem awaits this weekend at Chester. Although only seven runners have been declared, it’s shaping up to be one of the races of the weekend.
Interest in any race is heightened when Willie Mullins has a runner declared, but his fellow Irishman and jumps rival, Gordon Elliott, has declared last week’s York second, Samui.
Add in the talented mare Caius Chorister, and we are set for a highly competitive race.
Here is your betting guide for all seven runners. You can get all the best horse racing odds for Chester at the best horse bookmakers.
Chester Stakes runner by runner betting guide
Here’s my runner by runner guide for Chester Stakes.
🏇 1 – Caius Chorister (1)
- Runner: Caius Chorister
- Weight: 9st 3lb
- Age: 5
- Form: 1-2264
- OR: 108
- Jockey: James Doyle
- Trainer: David Menuisier
- Betting odds: 5/2
A highly progressive mare, Caius Chorister has enjoyed a productive season. After starting with a narrow second behind Coltrane, she repeated the result at Sandown, again finishing a close second to Sweet William.
In the Ascot Gold Cup, the step up in trip seemed like it would suit her, but despite her 20/1 odds, she ran disappointingly, finishing 21 lengths behind the winner with no real excuses.
I’ve been a fan of hers all season, but her most recent run at Goodwood suggested that she might have had one battle too many. Her first two races were grueling staying tests, and it seems to have taken a toll.
As much as I’d love to give her another chance down in grade, my gut tells me to leave her out, especially as Chester may not suit her big, galloping style.
✅ Has plenty of form good enough to win this.
❌ Has had a few tough battles this season.
❌ Chester may work against her galloping style.
Star Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🐎 Bet on Caius Chorister with talkSPORT BET 🐎
🏇 1 – Absurde (1)
- Runner: Absurde
- Weight: 9st 8lb
- Age: 6
- Form: /217-4
- OR: 109
- Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
- Trainer: Willie Mullins
- Betting odds: 3/1
A high-class dual-purpose gelding, Absurde has shown strong form on the flat, notably when finishing second to stablemate Vauban in the 2023 Copper Horse at Royal Ascot. He followed that up with a gritty win in the 2023 Ebor Handicap at York.
A stint over hurdles last season saw him pulled up and down the field in two Grade 1 Novice Hurdles at Leopardstown, but he returned to form with a blistering win in the County Hurdle at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.
On the back of a 155-day break, Absurde was well beaten behind St Leger hopeful Grosvenor Square in the Irish St Leger Trial at the Curragh.
He’ll need considerable improvement from that run, which is possible. You can never write off a Willie Mullins horse, but it might be worth taking on Absurde here after such a poor performance.
✅ Top handicap-winning form.
❌ Well beaten last time out.
Star Rating: ⭐⭐⭐
🐎 Bet on Absurde with BetMGM 🐎
🏇 5 – Real Dream (8)
- Runner: Real Dream
- Weight: 9st 8lb
- Age: 5
- Form: 103-25
- OR: 105
- Jockey: Richard Kingscote
- Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
- Betting odds: 11/2
This may come back to haunt me, but nothing about Real Dream excites me here.
His last win was over a year ago, and the horses he beat have been consistently disappointing since. The runner-up has been beaten nine times in a row, the third ten times, and the fourth twelve times. Only the fourth, Tides of War, has shown any form since.
A well-beaten 19th of 22 followed in the Ebor, although he did manage a better run when third at Doncaster. There was a glimmer of hope when he finished second behind Maxi King, but that was followed by a dismal display in a five-runner Listed event at York, where he finished 34 lengths last.
Wind surgery has followed, but even with that, it’s hard to be confident about his chances here.
✅ Wind surgery may help his chances.
❌ On the back of a very poor run.
Star Rating: ⭐⭐
🐎 Bet on Real Dream with Spreadex 🐎
🏇 6 – Samui (5)
- Runner: Samui
- Weight: 9st 8lb
- Age: 5
- Form: 1212
- OR: 105
- Jockey: Oisin Orr
- Trainer: Gordon Elliott
- Betting odds: 6/1
Since switching to the flat in May, this talented hurdler hasn’t looked back.
After a maiden win at Down Royal, he finished second to the now Guinness Handicap winner Eagle’s Way. He then returned to winning ways at Killarney, demolishing his rivals by 17 lengths.
Hit with a 12lb hike in the weights, he traveled to York last week as a well-backed 3/1 favorite, only to be beaten by fellow Irish raider Extensio, who was in receipt of over a stone from Samui. Nonetheless, it marked another big step forward on the flat.
A crack at Listed level awaits him here, and with the progress he’s shown since May, he is worth his place. He’s the clear value pick at 6/1, especially on a track that should hold no fears for him.
✅ On a steep upward curve.
✅ Progressive with each run.
❌ Only 7 days since his last run.
Star Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
🏇 3 – Fairbanks (4)
- Runner: Fairbanks
- Weight: 9st 8lb
- Age: 4
- Form: 126120
- OR: 101
- Jockey: David Probert
- Trainer: Andrew Balding
- Betting odds: 12/1
A tough four-year-old, Fairbanks has had a productive season with two wins and some good runs in defeat, notably when a neck second to Align The Stars in the Goodwood Summer Handicap and a fine 14th, beaten only eight lengths, in the Ebor.
This will be his eighth run since April, and after a hard race in the Ebor last week, this might be beyond him. But it wouldn’t be a shock to see him battling for a place coming up the home straight.
✅ The type to bounce back.
❌ Has had a long, hard season.
❌ Ran only 7 days ago in the Ebor.
Star Rating: ⭐⭐
🐎 Bet on Fairbanks with Copybet 🐎
🏇 4 – Naqeeb (2)
- Runner: Rajinsky
- Weight: 9st 8lb
- Age: 8
- Form: 16507-
- OR: 103
- Jockey: Jason Hart
- Trainer: Hugo Palmer
- Betting odds: 16/1
With seven wins, six second-place finishes, and four third-place finishes from 28 starts, Rajinsky commands respect. But after 397 days away from the track, it’s hard to see him winning this on his comeback.
If he comes out of this race in good shape, he should be able to get back to winning ways later in the flat season.
✅ A fine strike rate.
❌ First run in 397 days.
Star Rating: ⭐⭐
🏇 7 – Shanroe (6)
- Runner: Shanroe
- Weight: 9st 8lb
- Age: 10
- Form: /U116-
- OR: 106
- Jockey: Robbie Colgan
- Trainer: Karl Thornton
- Betting odds: 16/1
No stranger to the winner’s enclosure at Chester, Shanroe holds a 100% record on the Roodee.
He’s sure to be part of the pace here, but Shanroe hasn’t been seen since November 2023. He has recorded wins after breaks before, so there’s optimism that this valiant 10-year-old will do himself justice here, though he’s likely to find a few too good today.
✅ Has won off a break before.
✅ 100% win record at the course.
❌ Now a 10-year-old facing younger rivals.
Star Rating: ⭐⭐
🐎 Bet on Shanroe with Betfred 🐎
🏇2 – Enemy (7)
- Runner: Enemy
- Weight: 9st 8lb
- Age: 7
- Form: 127586
- OR: 108
- Jockey: Cieren Fallon
- Trainer: Ian Williams
- Betting odds: 25/1
After a string of dismal displays since returning to the UK and Ireland, including a poor run here over a furlong shorter, Enemy is easy to overlook in this race.
He ran in a much easier contest at the Galway Festival but was a no-show once again. There’s little to suggest he can turn around his bad run of form.
✅ Has past form that could see him perform well.
❌ Well beaten in his last three runs.
Star Rating: ⭐
🐎 Bet on Enemy with talkSPORT BET 🐎
Listed Virgin Bet Chester Stakes verdict
In a race where much of the field is searching for form, SAMUI comes in at the top of his game, with more progress likely.
Impressive since switching to the flat, this talented hurdler can add Listed honors to his CV today.
If Absurde improves from his Curragh run, he should also be a strong contender.
About the author
Andrew Halligan
My name is Andrew Halligan, horse racing pundit and founder of YouTube’s The Finishing Line Podcast. Horse racing is a thrilling spectacle that captivates audiences around the world with its blend of drama and excitement. Whether you’re a jumps or flat fan, I will use my experience of working within the horse racing industry to bring the best of what this sport has to offer.
You can follow Andrew on X (@Halligan88).
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