The 2024 Presidential Election has captured public attention not just in political circles but in the betting world too. As candidates make final campaign pushes, election betting odds reveal intriguing insights into potential outcomes. This guide will walk you through everything that you need to know about election betting, the odds, how it works, and the legal status in the U.S.
What Is Election Betting?
Election betting is a form of prediction market where people wager on political election outcomes. Historically, politics betting has existed since at least the 1800s, when New York’s Wall Street was a major hub for presidential election betting.
Today, both Democrats and Republicans can wager on various outcomes, such as which candidate will win, which party will secure the majority, or who will carry certain swing states.
Whether it’s a friendly $20 bet between coworkers or sophisticated trading on prediction markets, there has always been an appetite for testing our political instincts against others who think they know better.
How Does Election Betting Work?
Much like sports betting, election odds are set based on factors like candidate popularity, polling data, and political trends.
Sportsbooks update odds as candidates gain or lose favor, factoring in events like debates or campaign milestones. Bettors win by correctly predicting the election outcome.
Is Election Betting Legal In The U.S.?
In the past, betting on elections has been generally prohibited due to integrity issues but that has changed in 2024.
For the first time in over a century, betting on the presidential election is legal in the U.S. with platforms like Kalshi and Robinhood lining up to take bets on Trump vs. Harris.
Both Democrats and Republicans are backing their favorite candidates with skin in the game by placing bets on the winner. Americans have already bet over $150 million on Trump vs. Harris with that number likely to continue to reach new heights until the final votes are counted.
For Americans looking for Vegas odds on the presidential election, top online betting sites like BetOnline also offer a wide variety of politics betting markets, including the winning candidate, winner of the popular vote, and more unique props like governor and mayoral races.
2024 Presidential Election Betting Odds
The most popular bet on the 2024 Presidential Election will be which candidate will win the election.
As of early November, Donald Trump is the betting favorite with odds at -163, implying a 61.9% chance of winning, while Kamala Harris trails at +140 with a 41.6% implied probability.
The odds fluctuate as both candidates campaign in battleground states, and new poll data is released.
Check out the latest election odds below.
2024 Election Odds Predictions Map
The electoral college map plays a pivotal role in predicting the outcome. Key states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona will be decisive, with Trump leading in some states and Harris holding a slight edge in others. Below is how the current election map looks according to the betting odds:
Which Swing States Could Determine The Election?
There are six key states that could swing this election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris has an edge in Michigan, creating a tight race in these key states. Check out the odds for each state below:
| State | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump |
|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | +110 (47.62%) | -138 (57.98%) |
| Michigan | -175 (63.64%) | +137 (42.19%) |
| North Carolina | +200 (33.33%) | -250 (71.43%) |
| Wisconsin | -110 (52.38%) | -110 (52.38%) |
| Georgia | +220 (31.25%) | -275 (73.33%) |
| Arizona | +240 (29.41%) | -300 (75.00%) |
Trump Odds To Win The Election
Currently at -175, Trump’s odds reflect his campaign’s stronghold in key states, giving him a 63.64% chance to win the election according to the odds. As Election Day nears, his odds are expected to change based on final campaign events and voter turnout predictions.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 31, 2024
How Much Can I Win If I Bet On Trump To Win in 2024?
With odds of -172 at BetWhale, you can bet $172 to win $100, or $17.20 to win $10 and so forth. With this being such a big event worldwide, sportsbooks will have large limits on the event. They will likely take some of the largest bets of the year on the presidential election, and news of seven-figure bets during this time is not uncommon.
It is worth exploring different sportsbooks to find the best odds. As the table below shows, sportsbooks slightly differ on their odds for each candidate, allowing for bettors to win bigger if they choose the sportsbook with the best odds on their preferred candidate.
Harris Odds To Win The Election
Harris’s odds stand at +150 with BetOnline, showing her as the underdog. Recent rallies and endorsements have impacted her campaign positively, though her odds remain below Trump’s.
“I’m not here as a celebrity. I’m not here as a politician. I’m here as a mother.” – Beyoncé speaks at Kamala Harris’ rally in Houston pic.twitter.com/taWpVhF6DC
— philip lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) October 26, 2024
How Much Can I Win If I Bet On Harris To Win in 2024?
With odds of +150, a $100 bet on Harris could result in a $150 profit, and a $1,000 bet returns $1,500 if she wins and so forth. With Harris being the underdog there is a greater reward for your initial investment.
Where Can I Bet On The 2024 Presidential Election?
Top betting sites like BetOnline will have hundreds of markets available for the 2024 Presidential Election.
While some other traditional sportsbooks based in the US, like FanDuel and DraftKings, may not be taking bets on the event, there are plenty of alternatives for those looking to bet on their preferred candidate or even for an emotional hedge!