Get ready to hear the words “border,” “abortion” and “inflation” when Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump debate for the first time Tuesday in Philadelphia. At least, that’s what offshore bettors think.
On Tuesday, Sept. 10, at 9 p.m. EDT, USA TODAY Network will stream The ABC News Presidential Debate Simulcast on the USA TODAY channel, available on most smart televisions and devices.
In what resembles a high-stakes version of debate bingo, wagers totaling more than $2 million on Polymarket – a cyptotrading platform – are trying to predict what the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees will say.
As of 5 p.m. EDT on Monday, the presidential betting – which legally can’t be done in the U.S. – predicts there’s an 89% chance Trump will say “Israel” and a 91% Harris will say “abortion,” according to Polymarket.
Harris and Trump debate: Here are some drinking games to help
The most and least likely words and phrases Trump and Harris might say
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Many of the words gamblers can wager on are not unexpected based on each candidate’s speeches, such as “China,” “Project 2025” and “democracy.” A few red herrings such as “Epstein,” “DEI” and “crypto/bitcoin” haven’t gained much traction.
What to watch for during the Harris-Trump debate
This debate has potential to become the most watched debate as the 2024 race has been upended since Joe Biden stepped down as the Democratic nominee.
What has been interesting are the words that gamblers have decided are more or less likely to be uttered since Polymarket opened the betting Sept. 4.
Even so, it appears they are more confident in the words Trump will use. Just three of his 17 words or phases have changed 14 percentage points or more. In the past five days, seven of the 18 words Harris might say have shifted at least that much. Notably, “liar” has fallen 26%, while “convicted felon” jumped 23%.
The biggest shifts in words Trump and Harris might use in the debate
The debate bets are just a fraction of the money that has been wagered on Polymarket for the entire 2024 U.S. general election. The company says it has received more than $847 million in bets on who will win the presidency. That number will undoubtedly rise as potential gamblers listen to the candidates’ words Tuesday night.
How Harris’ and Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 presidential election changed
As of 9 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, bettors on Polymarket gave Trump an 82% chance of retaining his lead over Harris on the site where he held a 53% chance of winning, based on current bets.
How accurate have election odds been in past presidential elections?
The betting favorite has lost only twice since 1866, according to the Conversation, a nonprofit news organization.
The two upsets came in 1948 when Democrat Harry Truman beat 8-to-1 odds to defeat Republican Thomas Dewey, and in 2016 when Trump overcame 7-to-2 odds to beat Hillary Clinton.
Read more about recent betting and polling here.
Contributing: James Powel